EM-Report

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1 Stran 1 od 5 Svetovni pregled Delnice EM skupno oktobra rahlo v porastu Šibka rast svetovnega gospodarstva bo najverjetneje še trajala Valute držav na pragu razvitosti tendenčno še naprej pod pritiskom še naprej močnega ameriškega dolarja Oktobra so delniški trgi držav na pragu razvitosti v povprečju zabeležili rahel plus v višini 1 % (merjeno v lokalnih valutah). Turške, indijske in kitajske delnice so se ob tem razvijale najmočneje. Skoraj vse valute EM so v primerjavi z ameriškim dolarjem ponovno nekoliko padle (pri čemer je slednji v primerjavi z evrom in jenom močno porasel). Še posebej šibko pa se je razvijal rubelj. Tako ruski valuti ni pomagalo niti presenetljivo krepko zvišanje obresti centralne banke. Vzporedno so padle tudi cene surovin, zlasti nafte. In kar je pri uvoznikih nafte (npr. Kitajska, indija, Turčija) pravi blagoslov, povzroča nasprotno zaskrbljenost pri izvoznikih (države OPEC, Rusija). Sicer pa je nadaljnje občutno padanje kotiranja surove nafte trenutno malo verjetno. Kljub temu ga ne gre povsem izključiti, saj obstajajo mnogi proizvajalci po vsem svetu, ki so nujno odvisni od prihodkov od prodaje nafte, zato tudi pri nizkih cenah ne morejo oz. ne želijo zmanjševati svoje proizvodnje. Poleg tega je cela vrsta naftnih polj, ki niso bila rentabilna že pri ceni 90 do 100 ameriških dolarjev za sodček, kaj šele pri aktualnih cenah. Zato utegne slediti globalno pomanjkanje ponudb, vendar verjetno z občutnim časovnim zamikom. Narodna gospodarstva večine držav na pragu razvitosti kažejo tudi za prihodnje šibko sliko gospodarske rasti; to pa lahko velja za svetovno gospodarstvo nasploh. Za evroobmočje se je nazadnje spet povečalo tveganje za ponovni pojav recesije. Kitajska se prav tako bori z dinamiko rasti, ki je v negativnem trendu. Trdega pristanka sicer trenutno še ne gre pričakovati; toda vodstvo v Pekingu ostaja odločeno, da še naprej zmanjšuje premočno rast kreditov v zadnjih letih in v ta namen po potrebi v zakup vzame tudi kakšen padec rasti. ZDA še naprej beležijo dokaj solidno rast. Toda njihov pomen za svetovno gospodarstvo se je v zadnjih dveh desetletjih občutno zmanjšal in trenutno v Severni Ameriki ne gre pričakovati novega gospodarskega razcveta. K temu je treba dodati, da je ameriška centralna banka s svojo izredno ohlapno denarno politiko pomemben vir za dodatno likvidnost tudi za države na pragu razvitosti; ta dejavnik pa bo v prihodnje odpadel. Ker se mnoge države na pragu razvitosti (ne samo Kitajska) istočasno ukvarjajo s tem, kako premostiti prekomerno odobravanje kreditov v zadnjih letih, v večini razvijajočih se trgov tudi za prihodnjih 12 mesecev ne gre pričakovati močnejše oživitve narodnih gospodarstev. Ob tem obstaja po revalvaciji ameriškega dolarja v preteklih mesecih še naprej prisotno tveganje, da bodo valute EM izpostavljene nadaljnji slabitvi. Četudi utegnejo imeti zadevne centralne banke po večini dovolj sredstev za ukrepanje proti nekontrolirani in prekomerni devalvaciji, lahko imajo morebitne intervencije (zvišanje obresti, direktni posegi na devizni trg) nasprotno dodatno zaviralni učinek za lastno narodno gospodarstvo. To seveda ne pomeni, da delnice in obveznice EM nimajo nobenega novega potenciala za pozitivni razvojni trend. Slednji vsekakor obstaja vendar na bolj nacionalno specifični ravni, na nov splošni bikovski trg za delnice EM pa bo treba najverjetneje še nekaj časa počakati. Sicer ostajajo številni delniški trgi razvijajočih se držav po drugi strani še naprej po večini privlačni, zlasti Rusija in Kitajska. S tem povezan potencial rasti vrednosti pa je treba razumeti zlasti dolgoročno.

2 Stran 2 od 5 Country focus PM Modi solidifies his political power with election victories in two key states India is profiting strongly from the currently weak global economic environment India In India, the Hindu-nationalist BJP also won regional parliamentary elections in two key states, in the wake of its massive election victory in October. It is now expected that PM Modi will push forward with his reform programme, after having proceeded at a more moderate pace initially due to the regional elections. In economic terms, India is currently in a very advantageous position. It is profiting vastly from the lower price of oil and at the same time it is relatively unscathed by the slack global demand, as India s exports of industrial goods are comparatively low. While PM Modi wishes to gradually change this and establish India as a strong competitor to China in this field, there is a long ways to go before that happens. Another positive effect of the poor economic environment is that inflation is declining in India, despite reductions in some state subsidies. For a long time, the excessively high inflation was a major obstacle which prevented the central bank from taking supportive measures, and the high interest rates restrained lending and investment. In a bestcase scenario, India may actually be able to grow even more strongly than China in approximately two years. The stock market was much stronger again in October, posting a gain of almost 5%. Incumbent Rousseff reelected stock market players react with disappointment Brazil In Brazil, the presidential elections were naturally the big event in October again. Despite some intense speculation at times about a possible victory for the centre-right candidate Neves, who was mainly supported by business circles, incumbent President Rousseff finally came out on top in the run-off poll. In previous issues of the em-report we had frequently expressed our scepticism about the stock market rally in Brazil, which was strongly driven by political hopes and speculation. Accordingly, it is hardly surprising that this market is roughly back to where it was in April, when these speculations about possible political developments began. At the same time, re-election of the incumbent does not mean that there will not be any change in policies. Still, whether and in what ways President Rousseff will take new initiatives remains to be seen and this may be a topic of focus in future issues of the em-report. After some temporary strong swings in prices, the Bovespa index finally closed the month with hardly any change, posting a small gain of 1%. China s economy will probably show the weakest growth in the last 20 years China China s economic performance remains slack and growth in 2014 is likely to be the lowest registered in the last 20 years. Naturally, a 7.4% rate of growth is something that almost any other country in the world would be very happy with. Growth in China is hampered in particular by surplus capacities in many fields and anaemic domestic demand. At the same time, the local governments are not able or allowed to take stimulus measures to the extent they were in previous years. Stronger state measures to reduce the shadowing banking sector will probably additionally weigh on lending. Due to the declines in commodity prices, producer prices in China recently also fell. As a result, there are also mounting risks of deflation in the Chinese economy. On the other hand, positive surprises included the latest export figures, which showed a rise of

3 Stran 3 od % compared to the same month of the previous year. The performance of the equity markets was quite good in October on the whole. Mainland shares (A-shares) continued their upward trend from the previous month (+2.5%). After declines in the previous month, the H-shares traded in Hong Kong rose by more than 4%. No solution to the Ukraine conflict in sight Moscow reinforces cooperation with the Asian countries in response to the ongoing Western sanctions Falling oil prices, a weak rouble and sanctions are boosting inflation in Russia S&P confirms its investment grade rating on Russian government bonds Russia The ceasefire in Ukraine is increasingly crumbling and a solution to the conflict is still nowhere in sight. On a positive note, however, Ukraine and Russia were at least able to reach an agreement on gas deliveries until the spring of In the meantime, the Western alliance is now considering further tightening its sanctions against Russia. In response, Russia is stepping up its cooperation with Asian countries, in particular with China. A second massive gas supply project was negotiated between the two countries and could turn China into Russia s second largest gas customer, a position which has been held by Europe so far. Nevertheless, the Ukraine conflict was not such a hot topic on the Russian financial markets in October. The continued decline in oil prices was a much more dominant issue, along with the depreciation of the rouble and possible countermeasures by the Russian central bank. Russia s monetary authorities surprised the markets by raising interest rates sharply from 8% to 9.5% at the end of October. This was preceded by significant purchases on the FX market to support the rouble, amounting to an estimated volume of around USD 25 bn. The FX market, however, was not very impressed with all these measures, and the rouble fell to a new low both vis-à-vis the US dollar and the euro. Inflation is now picking up in Russia, due to the weakening RUB, Western sanctions and the Russian counter-sanctions (import ban on many foodstuffs from Western countries). It appears clear that the central bank only has very limited options to take countermeasures via its monetary policy. Despite the worries of many market participants, the rating agency S&P confirmed its investment grade rating for Russia. Nevertheless, it maintained the negative outlook, citing amongst other things Russia s strong dependence on commodity exports as a significant negative factor hindering any improvement in the rating. Despite all of this, in LCY the Russian stock market saw surprisingly good performance, with the MICEX gaining more than 5% in October. By contrast, the RTS index calculated in USD lost around 3%. Due to the prolonged depreciation of the rouble, a strong divergence has developed between these two indices in recent months: while the RUB-denominated MICEX is almost unchanged since the beginning of the year, the RTS has seen a decline of around 25%. In terms of valuations, the Russian equity market still looks attractive over the long term. Nevertheless, a robust recovery for share prices can only be expected when a solution to the conflict with Ukraine is found, and/or the Russian economy and currency begin to rebound. In order for the latter to happen, the price of oil would have to stabilise and recover again.

4 Stran 4 od 5 Gains for Turkish currency, bonds and equities in October Turkish central bank now officially projecting significantly higher inflation compared to its previous forecasts Turkey Tensions in the neighbouring countries of Iraq and Syria continue to be risk factors for Turkey, but it was other topics that dominated the country s financial markets in October. The Turkish currency, bonds and share prices all surged higher, thanks to the relatively good corporate results and the confirmation of Turkey s investment grade rating by the agency Fitch (with a stable outlook). The stock market recouped its losses from September and posted a gain of around 8% in October, making it one of the strongest markets. In its latest inflation report, the Turkish central bank adjusted its inflation forecast to reflect reality, with the bank now projecting a rate of just about 9% in 2014 and around 6% in In the year ahead, the strong decline in the oil price will have a very benign effect, but it may nevertheless prove difficult to meet the long-term goal of 5%. The central bank left the key interest rates and interest rate corridor unchanged at its last meeting. It reiterated its intention to pursue a tight monetary policy as long as there was no decline in inflation. At the same time, the current account deficit remains high, at around 6% of GDP, and the financing for this deficit over the long term is questionable. It would certainly be helpful if the price of oil remained low in the coming quarters. Unless economic growth turns out to be disappointing low, however, it will be difficult to lower this deficit significantly due to the low savings rate. If talk about interest rate hikes in the USA starts to dominate market sentiment again, Turkish bonds would still be amongst the assets which are most exposed to vulnerability. Poland s economy on track for stabilisation again following a brief soft patch Poland Poland s economy was unable to maintain the positive dynamics from the first half of the year. Nevertheless, there is also currently no threat of a slump in performance and it appears that the economy is now stabilising again following a dip in growth during the third quarter. The purchasing managers index recently climbed back over the 50-mark and is thus indicating a mild improvement in prospects. In the meantime, the rate of inflation has dipped to slightly below zero, in a phenomenon which has also been seen in other Central European countries. The central bank deems this to be merely a temporary development and assumes that prices will rise by more 2% again in Despite this, the central banks in the region currently have a bias towards lowering interest rates (insofar as they have the leeway to do so). As a result, many analysts were projecting another rate cut in Poland in early November, but no change occurred. While Polish bonds reacted to the rate-setting decision with mild increases in yields, viewed in comparison to the previous month the level of yields was much lower on the whole, fostering positive performance despite the weaker PLN. A small decline was registered for the equity market, after it posted one of the strongest results in the region in September. Czech Republic The latest economic data from the Czech Republic indicate a mild deceleration in economic growth, but a positive trend on the whole. In contrast to Poland, the Czech economy still has not been impacted so strongly by the Ukraine crisis, even though export orders and industrial production have not been able to maintain the relatively high growth rates which were seen in recent months. Inflation is now rising somewhat, but at 0.7% the rate is still far too low for the central bank. CZK depreciated a bit in October. The Czech central bank will probably continue to

5 Stran 5 od 5 intervene against any more significant appreciation of CZK until Czech bond yields tracked the underlying trend in German government bonds and increased. The Czech stock market closed October with a modest loss of around 1%. Hungary In Q2, Hungary s economy posted a growth rate of 3.9%, thanks in particular to the strong expansion in capital stock and good export dynamics. The third quarter is also looking good, and industrial production remains on tract for growth. As expected, the central bank left the base rate at its record low level of 2.1%. Despite the deflationary tendencies (inflation was -0.5% last month), the central bank projects a sharp increase in inflation to around 2.5% in the coming year. Hungarian bonds saw good performance in October, against of a backdrop of widespread declines in yields in the region. By contrast, the stock market performance was a good bit worse, with a loss of around 3%. Imprint Publisher and copyright owner: Zentrale Raiffeisenwerbung, 1030 Vienna, Am Stadtpark 9 Published and prepared by: Raiffeisen Kapitalanlage-Gesellschaft m.b.h., Schwarzenbergplatz 3, 1010 Vienna For more information, please visit us at: This document was prepared and designed by Raiffeisen Kapitalanlage-Gesellschaft m.b.h., Vienna, Austria ( Raiffeisen Capital Management or Raiffeisen KAG ). Although all information contained therein has been carefully researched, it is for information purposes only, non-binding, based on the current state of knowledge of the persons responsible for its preparation at the time of its completion and subject to change by Raiffeisen KAG at any time without further notice. Raiffeisen KAG is exempted from all liability in connection with this document and the associated oral presentation, in particular with regard to the updated status, correctness and completeness of the included information/sources of information and the actual occurrence of the forecasts contained therein. Furthermore, no forecasts or simulations of an historical performance in this document constitute a reliable indicator of future performance. In addition, investors whose domestic currency differs from the fund s currency or the portfolio s currency respectively should bear in mind that the yield may also rise or fall due to currency fluctuations. The contents of this document constitute neither an offer nor a buying or selling recommendation nor an investment analysis. In particular, it shall not serve as a replacement for individual investment advisory services or other types of advisory services. If you are interested in a specific product, together with your account manager we shall be pleased to provide you with the prospectus or the information for investors pursuant Section 21 AIFMG for this product prior to any purchase. Concrete investments should not be made until after a meeting has taken place and subject to discussion and inspection of the prospectus or the information for investors pursuant Section 21 AIFMG. We should like to point out in particular that securities transactions are sometimes subject to a high degree of risk and that the tax treatment depends on the investor s personal situation and may be subject to future changes. Reproduction of the information or data, in particular the use of texts, text sections or graphic material from this document requires the prior written consent of Raiffeisen KAG. Information pursuant to 25 of the Austrian Media Act can be found at Impressum. Editorial deadline: