December 2014 Aktualno poročilo o kapitalskih trgih na razvijajočih se trgih emreport Stran 1 od 5 Svetovni pregled Padec cen nafte prevladujoča tema

Transkripcija

1 Stran 1 od 5 Svetovni pregled Padec cen nafte prevladujoča tema finančnih trgov Delniški trgi EM z rahlim minusom, vendar zelo razpršeni med velikimi zmagovalci in poraženci Padec cen nafte blagoslov za svetovno gospodarstvo ali znanilec šibke globalne rasti? Nadaljnje padanje cen surove nafte je bila tudi novembra prevladujoča tema na finančnih trgih. Z minusom skoraj 20 % je padla vrsta surove nafte Brent iz Severnega morja na najnižjo raven po letu Valute in finančni trgi izvoznikov nafte so bili zaradi tega še pod večjim pritiskom, medtem ko so uvozniki nafte močno pridobili. Tako so denimo turške delnice ponovno zabeležile močan porast za več kot 7 %; kitajske celinske delnice pa so poskočile celo za več kot 10 %. Na strani poražencev so se temu primerno z dvomestnimi odstotnimi izgubami znašle savdskoarabske in ruske delnice, pri čemer je bila pri slednjih izguba vrednosti v prvi vrsti za tuje vlagatelje povezana z izrednimi padci rublja. Tako je sicer indeks MICEX, izražen v rubljih, za leto 2014 celo še nekoliko v plusu, medtem ko je indeks RTS v ameriških dolarjih od začetka leta že izgubil skoraj tretjino svoje vrednosti in se bliža najnižji ravni po letu Skupno pa so delniški trgi držav na pragu razvitosti novembra zaradi povprečnega minusa v višini 1,1 % izgubili svoj plus iz oktobra. Nasprotno so razviti delniški trgi v povprečju pridobili okoli 2 %. Cene surove nafte, ki padajo že od junija, ne bodo imele zgolj pozitivnega vpliva na svetovno konjunkturo. Sicer mnogi opozarjajo, da bi imeli potrošniki s tem na voljo več denarja za druge potrošniške dobrine in bi se stroški za mnoge industrije znižali. Toda negativne posledice na ameriško naftno industrijo in druge panoge ameriškega gospodarstva utegnejo pripeljati do tega, da bo ameriška centralna banka svoje obresti prvič dvignila šele kasneje, kot pa trgi trenutno pričakujejo. A negativne posledice so lahko še hujše. Posledično se lahko namreč močno zmanjšajo vlaganja v nove energetske projekte, prav tako tudi prihodki od davkov iz naftnih industrij mnogih držav. Najverjetneje bi bilo zato potrebno prej ali slej znižati tudi državne izdatke v državah, ki spodbujajo proizvodnjo nafte. Veliko skromneje bi pritekal tudi tako imenovani bencinski denar, ki tu in tam pljuskne po planetu, centralne banke pa bi bile v svojem boju proti strahu pred deflacijo ponovno soočene z novim protiinflacijskim dejavnikom. Skratka, vsekakor pozitivni učinki padca cen nafte obstajajo, vendar jih številne negativne posledice občutno in dodobra načenjajo. Pozitivno ostaja dejstvo, da je padec cen nafte najverjetneje povezan zlasti z večjim povpraševanjem in manj z manjšim povpraševanjem. Torej se zdi vsaj z današnjega vidika da ni znanilec pospešene globalne slabitve konjunkture. Zaskrbljujoča sta lahko obseg in hitrost padanja, kajti z zgolj močnim povpraševanjem je to situacijo težko pojasniti. Natančnejše rezultate pa bodo vsekakor prinesli prihodnji meseci.

2 Stran 2 od 5 Country focus Despite the long-term challenges, positive economic factors currently have the upper hand in Turkey Speculation about rate cuts may push equities and bonds higher in the months to come Will Turkey profit from the conflict between the West and Russia? Turkey When the US Fed started talking about a rate hike in the near future back in September, the Turkish financial markets and the lira came under pressure, an effect that has been on many occasion in the past. In these situations, many market participants tend to focus on Turkey s obvious weak points and the long-term challenges faced by the Turkish economy, such as its strong dependence on foreign capital, its chronically negative current account balance, the vulnerability of its banking system to rising interest rates and overly high inflation. At the same time, the challenges are contrasted with numerous positive factors and these currently have the upper hand. With the Fed recently taking a more dovish stance and the oil price plummeting, these positive factors have come back into market participants focus again. Turkey s bond and equity markets have seen a bullish rally and it is quite possible that this will continue for some time to come. While inflation is clearly too high, thanks to the slump in oil prices it may also decline steeply next year, opening up the possibility of rate cuts by the central bank. Furthermore, with yields on Turkish government bonds presently at 7%-8%, there is plenty more room for bond prices to go higher and this will probably benefit the banks in particular, considering that they traditionally hold relatively large portfolios of bonds. Banks in turn are weighted very strongly in the stock index. The prospects for economic growth next year also look quite good, especially if the price of oil remains at its current levels for a longer period of time. Real growth of 4% appears quite conceivable and this might result in a tangible reduction in the current account deficit. In this regard, it is quite remarkable that cooperation between Russia and Turkey appears to be deepening, and it is possible that an alternative pipeline solution will be built across Turkish territory, instead of the South Stream Pipeline, which was blocked by the EU. With the Western sanctions in place, Turkey may turn out to be one of the long-term beneficiaries of Russia s need to find alternative trade and business partners. If talk of a rate hike in the USA begins to dominate market sentiment again, Turkish bonds and the currency will still be among the most vulnerable assets, but looking ahead to the coming months and quarters, Turkey appears to be in a sweet spot right now and it is possible that these quite favourable conditions may be used to attempt to address some of the country s longterm economic challenges. India enjoys a relatively comfortable situation right now India Industrial production and inflation both reflected surprisingly positive developments recently. Furthermore, the sharp drop in the price of oil is very beneficial for India. Together with expectations of a rate cut in the near future and substantial reform steps in the new budget draft expected in the spring of 2015, India s financial markets are thus in great shape. In light of this, foreign capital continues to flow into the country s stock markets. With a gain of around 3% in November, the BSE Sensex once again advanced to another all-time high. Shares which are sensitive to interest rate developments (banks, real estate companies) posted particularly handsome gains.

3 Stran 3 od 5 Change in Brazil s economic policy on the horizon central bank raises key rate Brazil Brazil s economy grew at a languid rate of just 0.1% in the third quarter. Economic performance remains weak and inflation is far too high. In formal terms, the recession during the first two quarters came to end, but in actual fact the meagre growth registered in Q3 can be traced back to sharp increases in government spending in the run-up to the presidential elections. The economic policy team of the president, who only narrowly won the election, will probably take a different economic policy approach as compared to her first term in office. Going forward, the focus will apparently be on cutting state spending. Tighter monetary and fiscal policy will probably thus also be additional burdens on economic growth in In early December, the central bank raised the key rate to 11.75%. Nevertheless, the Brazilian real still dropped to a nine-year low against the US dollar. The Bovespa stock index closed November with almost no change, but came under intense pressure in early December due to the continued declines in oil prices. China s economic data were recently all weaker than expected central bank makes first rate cut in the last 2 years China China s economic performance continues to lose pace. Both exports and imports were weaker than expected. Clearly, demand in China s export markets and within the country itself is developing more sluggishly. The rate of inflation also continued to fall, coming to just 1.4% yoy in November, which marks the lowest rate in the last five years. This has fuelled new worries about deflation. The rapid weakening of the Japanese yen generates additional potential for deflation. In November, the central bank lowered interest rates for the first time in the last two years. At the same time, it is still working to cool off the real estate market and prevent the development of possible bubbles on the stock markets. The performance of the equity markets was nonetheless quite good in November on the whole. Mainland shares (A-shares) in particular did well, posting double-digit percentage gains. H-shares traded in Hong Kong saw less robust performance and booked a gain of around 3.5%. Russia between a rock and a hard place, with Western sanctions and falling oil prices Will the sanctions lend momentum to economic reforms? USA intensifies its confrontational stance against Russia Russia The rapid decline in the oil price and the parallel depreciation of the rouble were the dominant factors on the Russian financial markets in November of course. This will further exacerbate the already high inflation and capital flight in particular, possibly forcing the central bank to raise interest rates even more. At the same time, the economy may slip into a recession. The outflows of capital and the Western financial sanctions against Russian firms will mean that Russia s foreign currency reserves will decline significantly. On the other hand, calculated in rouble terms the price of oil has not fallen that much so far. Consequently, the ramifications should still be limited for tax revenues and the budget deficit. Over the long term, it may also be positive that Russia now has little alternative but to replace previous imports with its own products and to thus also initiate reforms and structural changes in the economy. It is also possible that the Western sanctions will actually pave the way for changes, which were previously impossible due to a lack of willingness in domestic politics. Naturally however, any positive effects of such changes will only become visible over the longer term, but over the medium term they might help to stabilise the domestic economy.

4 Stran 4 od 5 Limited potential for a recovery over the short run In the meantime, tensions between the USA and Russia have continued to rise. Washington has strengthened the tone of its rhetoric and is threatening with new sanctions. The US Congress even passed a resolution which amongst other things calls on the Ukrainian government to renew military action in the eastern part of the country and demands the delivery of US weapons to this end. Viewed in light of this, a resolution of the conflict in Ukraine seems further off than ever. In local currency terms, the Russian stock market recorded slightly better performance in November, with the MICEX gaining approximately 3%. This was hardly grounds for excitement among foreign investors, as the RTS index calculated in USD dropped by more than 10%. In terms of valuations, the Russian equity market still looks attractive over the long term. A thorough recovery, however, can only be expected when the Russian economy and currency start to recover. In order for that to happen, of course the price of oil will have to recover. This will probably only happen when a new market equilibrium is found, which will require a sufficiently large decline in supply on the one hand and a significant strengthening in the global economy leading to stronger oil demand on the other. Poland facing deflation, but Q3 growth was surprisingly robust Poland While Poland s economy was unable to maintain the positive dynamics from the first half of the year, the PMI index for manufacturing recently rose and edged past the expansion threshold of 50 points. At the same time, the rate of inflation in October was lower than anticipated, and at - 0.6% yoy, it is already well into negative territory. Consequently, many market participants were expecting another rate cut by the Polish central bank in November, but no change was made. The central bank continues to see the low inflation as a transitory phenomenon, and the unexpected rise in GDP in Q3 (+3.3% yoy) may have also played a role in the decision. A modest decline of around 2% was recorded for the stock market, with the negative momentum in the index driven mostly by mining stocks and utilities. CZK government bonds at lower yields than German Bunds Czech Republic The latest economic data from the Czech Republic indicate a mild deceleration in economic growth, but a positive trend on the whole. Export orders and industrial production were not able to quite maintain the relatively high growth rates from the second quarter, but are still pointing to expansion. The Czech central bank will continue to intervene against any significant appreciation of CZK until Czech bond yields increased, tracking the underlying trend in Eurozone government bonds. In early December, 10-year Czech government bonds actually had a lower yield (0.72%) than corresponding German Bunds. The stock market in Prague ended November with a small gain of around 2.3%. Outlook improving for Hungary s economy Hungary In Q2, Hungary s economy posted a growth rate of 3.9%, thanks in particular to the strong expansion in capital stock and good export dynamics. Despite the current deflation (inflation was -0.4% last month), the central bank projects a sharp increase in the rate of inflation to around 2.5% in the coming year. Consequently, the central bank left the base rate at its record low level of 2.1%, as expected. The rating agency Moody s upgraded the outlook on Hungary s credit

5 Stran 5 od 5 rating from negative to stable, explaining its decision with the improving economic outlook, the Hungarian government s commitment to keep the budget deficit under 3% of GDP and the country s increased resilience to external shocks. Hungarian stocks once again showed good performance in November. The stock market remains broadly unchanged. Imprint Publisher and copyright owner: Zentrale Raiffeisenwerbung, 1030 Vienna, Am Stadtpark 9 Published and prepared by: Raiffeisen Kapitalanlage-Gesellschaft m.b.h., Schwarzenbergplatz 3, 1010 Vienna For more information, please visit us at: This document was prepared and designed by Raiffeisen Kapitalanlage-Gesellschaft m.b.h., Vienna, Austria ( Raiffeisen Capital Management or Raiffeisen KAG ). Although all information contained therein has been carefully researched, it is for information purposes only, non-binding, based on the current state of knowledge of the persons responsible for its preparation at the time of its completion and subject to change by Raiffeisen KAG at any time without further notice. Raiffeisen KAG is exempted from all liability in connection with this document and the associated oral presentation, in particular with regard to the updated status, correctness and completeness of the included information/sources of information and the actual occurrence of the forecasts contained therein. Furthermore, no forecasts or simulations of an historical performance in this document constitute a reliable indicator of future performance. In addition, investors whose domestic currency differs from the fund s currency or the portfolio s currency respectively should bear in mind that the yield may also rise or fall due to currency fluctuations. The contents of this document constitute neither an offer nor a buying or selling recommendation nor an investment analysis. In particular, it shall not serve as a replacement for individual investment advisory services or other types of advisory services. If you are interested in a specific product, together with your account manager we shall be pleased to provide you with the prospectus or the information for investors pursuant Section 21 AIFMG for this product prior to any purchase. Concrete investments should not be made until after a meeting has taken place and subject to discussion and inspection of the prospectus or the information for investors pursuant Section 21 AIFMG. We should like to point out in particular that securities transactions are sometimes subject to a high degree of risk and that the tax treatment depends on the investor s personal situation and may be subject to future changes. Reproduction of the information or data, in particular the use of texts, text sections or graphic material from this document requires the prior written consent of Raiffeisen KAG. Information pursuant to 25 of the Austrian Media Act can be found at Impressum. Editorial deadline: