mag. Violeta Bulc, komisarka za promet, Evropska komisija Prihodnost mobilnosti v Evropski uniji

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2 mag. Violeta Bulc, komisarka za promet, Evropska komisija Prihodnost mobilnosti v Evropski uniji

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4 INFRASTRUKTURA Promet Energetika IKT STORITVE Brezhibne Digitalne Na zahtevo Varne Zavarovane Vključujoče PAMETNE SKUPNOSTI OBLIKOVANJE MEST Multimodalna vozlišča Javni prevoz Javni prostor za ljudi Oblikovanje urbanega prostora OBNAŠANJE Krožno gospodarstvo Sodelovanje Participacija Solidarnost

5 PAMETNE SKUPNOSTI Pametna infrastruktura Pametna mesta Pametne vasi Promet SINERGIJE Energetika IKT

6 Prometna arhitektura OMREŽJA REŠITVE APLIKACIJE PODATKI INFRASTRUKTURA STANDARDI/APIs, NPIs, SPIs ENAKOVREDNI POGOJI Ločevanje plasti Jasna, pregledna in poštena pravila za dostop

7 Povezana Sodelujoča Avtomatizirana Avtonomna Umetna inteligenca Pomorstvo (Plovila brez posadke) Letalstvo (U-prostor, brezpilotna letala, leteči avtomobili) Cesta (Samovozeča vozila, vod) Železnice (Avtomatske železniške operacije)

8 Operacije višjega zračnega prostora Dinamična & navzkrižna konfiguracija zračnega prostora FIR & upravljanje Omrežne operacije Brezplačne poti Visoka odpornost Storitve zračnega prometa Podatkovne in aplikacijske storitve Operacije u-space Podpora avtomatizacije in virtualizacije Prilagodljiva zmogljivost Enotne informacije & vmesnik Infrastruktura Integrirana in racionalizirana infrastruktura upravljanja zračnega prometa

9 Arhitektura U-prostora Osnova za storitve Začetna razpoložljivost storitev Napredne storitve Celostne storitve

10 Kje se vključiti? CIVITAS - Mreža mest za mesta posvečena čistejšemu in boljšemu prometu v Evropi in zunaj nje The European Innovation Partnership on Smart Cities and Communities - Združuje mesta, industrijo in državljane za izboljšanje mestnega življenja s trajnostno integriranimi rešitvami. European Platform on Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans - Osrednji cilj je izboljšati dostopnost urbanih območij ter zagotoviti visoko kakovostno trajnostno mobilnost in promet v, do in skozi urbana območja. Teden mobilnosti med 16. in 22. septembrom 2019

11 HVALA! Violeta BULC, evropska komisarka za promet (kontakt:

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13 Manuel Pungertnik AMZS Tehnologija v sodobnih vozilih, testiranje, preizkušanje

14 Brave (BRidging gaps for the adoption of Automated Vehicles) V odnosih med ljudmi ima pogled v oči pomembno mesto Avtonomna vožnja ter inteligentni asistenčni sistemi bodo v prihodnje temeljito spremenili našo osebno mobilnost in omogočili izboljšanje varnosti v prometu Izjemno pomemben vidik množične uvedbe avtonomnih vozil na naših cestah je tudi sprejetje koncepta avtonomne vožnje Podati odgovore na tovrstna vprašanja je eden od ciljev triletnega mednarodnega projekta BRAVE (od junija 2017izvaja AMZS + 10 partnerjev)

15 S testi asistenčnih sistemov do rešitve vprašanj glede avtonomne vožnje V AMZS Centru varne vožnje smo zasnovali in izvedli dva zanimiva testa: Na preizkus postavili elektronska čutila in reakcije sodobnih sistemov za pomoč voznikom. Dva scenarija s slovenskih cest: Samodejno zaviranje v sili Odgovor radarja na izsiljevanje

16 Pripravljeni na samovozečo prihodnost? Zaupate čipom, procesorjem in umetni inteligenci za volanom? Bi si upali stopiti pred vozilo, kjer ni voznika? Je tehnologija nezmotljiva, jo sprejemamo?

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18 Sašo Tomažič, tehnični inštruktor, AMZS Tehnično-diagnostični center Sodobna vozila zahtevajo avtonevrokirurgijo

19 TRANSFORMACIJA AVTOMOBILSKE INDUSTRIJE IZZIV PROIZVAJALCEM Elektrifikacija Avtonomnost Souporaba Povezljivost

20 TRANSFORMACIJA AVTOMOBILSKE INDUSTRIJE IZZIV UPORABNIKOM Nove tehnologije Novi koncepti Digitalizacija Vzdrževanje vozila

21 TRANSFORMACIJA AVTOMOBILSKE INDUSTRIJE IZZIV VZRŽEVALCEM Tehnologija računalniških sistemov Široka paleta znanja za vzdrževalca Razvoj na cesti Visoke napetosti pri električnih vozilih

22 AMZS danes TDC (Tehnično-diagnostični center) Visokotehnološki center Lastne rešitve Inovacijski pristop Izobraževanje

23 dr. Miha Rihar, vodja mobilnosti, Petrol d.d., Ljubljana Vidik uporabnika v tretji transportni revoluciji

24 Vidik uporabnik naj ima osrednje mesto pri snovanju novih rešitev Spreminjajoče se uporabniške in družbene zahteve Prevoz ljudi in blaga Povezana in avtonomna vozila Električna vozila Mobilnost kot storitev Spremembe v verigi vrednosti Sodelovanje v prihodnjem ekosistemu mobilnosti

25 Pogosto temu žal ni tako Zamisel vs. Realnost

26 Zamisli o mobilnosti prihodnosti Realnost ali utopija?

27 Zamisli o mobilnosti prihodnosti in vidik uporabnika Si uporabnik želi hoditi 500 m do najbližje avtobusne postaje ali lokacije za souporabo vozil? Je za uporabnika, ki živi na podeželju in za vsak opravek potrebuje prevoz souporaba vozil primerna? Si uporabnik želi v dežju kolesariti? Želi uporabnik za pot z alternativno obliko mobilnosti porabiti znatno več časa kot z osebnim vozilom ali pa potovati manj udobno za primerljivo ceno? Želi biti uporabnik nenehno v skrbeh glede polnosti baterije svojega vozila ali glede tega ali bo dobil prevoz?

28 Zamisli o mobilnosti prihodnosti in vidik uporabnika Javni transport Uporabniki si želijo bolje izrabiti čas kot pa ga prebiti za volanom Želijo enostavno dostopati do najrazličnejših oblik mobilnosti in se informirati o ceni posameznih storitev Če bodo vozili, bodo želeli polniti med drugimi opravki Kolesa, skiroji Taksi

29 Kako upoštevati vidik uporabnika pri načrtovanju novih konceptov mobilnosti? Zamisel Analiza potreb Zamisel o rešitvi Testiranje Opredelitev Realizacija

30 Primeri Polnjenje električnih vozil Zagotoviti uporabnikom možnost polnjenja doma, v službi, med nakupovanjem a kako izbrati pravo rešitev? Trajanje postanka Rešitev < 15 min Ultra hitro polnjenje (>150 kw) min Hitro polnjenje ( kw) 1 4 ure Običajno polnjenje (11-22 kw) > 4 ure Počasno polnjenje (3,7 7 kw) Omogočiti uporabniku brezskrbno potovanje in polnjenje na polnilnicah različnih operaterjev gostovanje Omogočiti uporabniku pregled na potekom polnjenja preko mobilne naprave

31 Kako v novo dobo mobilnosti vstopamo v Petrolu? Gradimo partnerstva skupaj analiziramo potrebe, snujemo rešitve, jih testiramo in realiziramo v večjem obsegu, ko se izkažejo za uspešne Polnilna infrastruktura Poslovni najem EV in upravljanje z voznimi parki Korporativna souporaba vozil Intermodalna tržnica prevoznih storitev - Analiziramo potrebe (zasebni vozni park, zaposleni, stranke, stanovalci ) - Oblikujemo najustreznejšo rešitev - Zagotavljamo nepretrgano tehnično pomoč in podporo uporabnikom - Oblikujemo rešitev glede na potrebe (zasebno polnjenje, javno polnjenje; telemetrija ) - Zagotovimo prihranke - Omogočimo vašim zaposlenim uporabo vozil izven delovnega časa - Znižamo strošek na prevožen kilometer - Omogočimo uporabniku enostavno izbiro različnih oblik mobilnosti - Primerjava cen in časa potrebnega za pot

32 Zaključki Potrebno je imeti realna pričakovanja Navzven všečne rešitve se lahko hitro sprevržejo v nasedlo investicijo - zamisli in rešitve morajo slediti analizi potreb uporabnikov Za optimalno uporabniško izkušnjo je potreben čas in razvoj ter posluh za potrebe uporabnikov Prehod v tretjo transportno revolucijo bo uspešen samo ob tesnem sodelovanju vseh deležnikov

33 Richard Harris, Direktor podjetja Real ITS Global, VB in član ITS World Hall of Fame Managing Urban Traffic Congestion

34 The mobility market bn 30bn 163bn Internet of Things Commerce 91bn 32bn 13bn Analytical Tools/techniques Communications 40bn 94bn 53bn Augmented Reality Data Risk Management Environmental 27bn Network Management Other ITS themes 2

35 Transport Challenges and Trends Connected and Automated Driving & Vehicles - Trials, regulation, business case Mobility as a Service & sharing economy - Solve the first and last mile issue - Integrated payments - Back office solutions - Informed policy leadership Air quality - Monitoring, data collection and analysis - Driver information - Change of travel behaviour - Balancing use of private vehicles

36 Real cities

37 Keeping the High Street Alive 5

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39 Integrated Transport and Mobility Sensors, FCD, Loops, Video, CCTV, Social media, IoT Journey times Public transport arrival times Timetables and routes Congestion Disruption Delays Incidents Road works Events Air quality Parking spaces Mobility options Trip scheduling Bike availability Car pool Car share Business Case Incidents Congestion Air Quality Capacity Policy Inform Public Transport Payments Monitor Mobility Analytics Platform Open Data Financial Transactions Parking Off/on street payments Enforcement Processing User needs Manage Toll/RUC payments KPIs Urban Traffic Control Managed Motorways Low emission zones Access control VMS and diversions Network management Demand management Variable toll Car Parking Bike hire Car share Demand Responsive Governance

40 Traffic Control Centres

41 Mobility as a Service The Netflix Of Transportation

42 Mobility as a Service Front end App Mobility companion Mobility marketplace Account based system /payment system Back office processing Open APIs (application programming interface) Access to services Access to data (IoT) Trust

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44 Back Office: Montréal (Québec) 19 operators in Montréal share a single back office platform while their sensitive data is kept secure One contactless Card OPUS, 3,000 bus, 5 train lines & 4 metro lines 1.2 million contactless cards processed daily 12% increase in ridership Data analytics

45 Analysis of mobility behaviour City of Vienna City of Vienna Slide from Fluidtime

46 Mobility Market Place Regional mobility analytics System optimisation Public feedback / Co-creation Revenue share Gamification Policy outcomes Cities / Public Transport End Users (Travelers) Transport Service Providers (TSPs) Know all my options Personalised analytics Commuters, tourists, etc. Access to customers Launching platform Level playing field

47 MaaS Business cases Authority is the MaaS operator: uses in-house resources direct outsources all of its responsibilities (becomes commissioning authority) external provision of services outsources all of its responsibilities except financial transactions operational commissioning Authority: part of a MaaS joint venture formed to manage and operate the system partnership the MaaS operator but shares platform/resources with other providers to make financial savings and bring efficiency mutual Private sector is the MaaS operator and has full control of its operation private sector operation

48 From App to B

49 Automated Shuttles Configurable and Modular Modular system which interact to perform complex behaviour Modules can be included, excluded, or substituted An open interface to enable third parties to create their own modules Localisation Power Security Braking Charging Obstacle Det. Communication Climate Control Steering System Navigation HMI Devices PuSH Open Interface Modular Design

50 On Demand or Anticipated Demand Demand Demand Demand As part of a new mobility eco-system

51 Wheelchair Driver accessible or Driverless? minibus can also provide On Demand Service for reduced mobility passangers

52 The Finnish Transport Code Less regulation but all mobility service providers shall open the relevant data on their services in open interfaces ECJ and Uber Information Society Service vs. service in the field of transport (Information Society Services Directives not applicable) MaaS Alliance Producing best practice guidance and engaging with stakeholders MaaS service providers European Developments

53 European developments Daimler and BMW 250M Euro free public transport in Bonn, Essen & Mannheim Estonia, Paris, Luxembourg Free public transport? Cities and Regions Road User Charging, CAZ, ULEZ to nudge behaviour change BVG Berlin launch mobility app Jelbi Vehicles single occupancy cars, single passenger buses, zero occupancy cars

54 Economy Safety Inclusion Health Reliability Quality of life More Liveable Cities and regions Efficiency Accessibility Mobility Environment Policy drivers

55 The Future? Automated Connected Electricfied Shared But securing end user benefits, policy and business outcomes will depend on the type of eco-structure and the role and engagement of the authorities.

56 Thank you Richard Harris Director Real ITS Global

57 Marjan Beltram Chief Travel and Mobility Officer NOMAGO d.o.o. DIGITAL MOBILITY AND REDUCTION OF OWNERSHIP

58 About us Largest travel and mobility company in Slovenia Subsidiaries in Croatia & Italy Broad local, national, and international range of services Registered lines connecting 7 European countries Planned expansion to new countries and cities Focusing on a great User Experience and services Development of Sustainable Transportation and Solutions nomago.eu

59 Key numbers 10 million passengers/year Comprehensive range of services employees 35 million km/year 700+ buses and coaches IATA/SATA member nomago.si nomago.eu

60 Buses are green and convenient 1 bus replaces 50 cars the smallest carbon footprint energy-efficient user friendly value your time affordable tickets the safest way to travel by road move communities nomago.eu

61 Ljubljana residents jobs daily working commuters 20% growth rate in last ten years less than 10% use public transport cars commuting to LJ every day 1,5 passengers per car (on working days) 1,022 mio tourist arrivals Jacob Riglin, Arhiv: STO nomago.eu

62 Slovenian case number of cars in direction of main urban areas daily Murska Sobota Up to Up to Velenje Slovenj Gradec Maribor Ptuj Up to Kranj Celje Nova Gorica Up to Ljubljana Novo mesto Up to Koper nomago.eu

63 Daily commuters to Ljubljana MB LJ DAILY COMMUTERS NG LJ DAILY COMMUTERS Maribor KP LJ DAILY COMMUTERS Nova Gorica Koper Ljubljana nomago.eu

64 Daily commuters to Ljubljana MB LJ CARS DAILY COMMUTING NG LJ 630 CARS DAILY COMMUTING Maribor KP LJ CARS DAILY COMMUTING Nova Gorica Koper Ljubljana nomago.eu

65 Daily commuters to Ljubljana MB LJ 130 KM NG LJ 100 KM Maribor KP LJ 100 KM Nova Gorica Koper Ljubljana nomago.eu

66 Daily commuters to Ljubljana MB LJ 60 t EMISSIONS CO 2 / DAY FROM CARS NG LJ 15 t EMISSIONS FROM CARS CO 2 / DAY Maribor KP LJ CO 31 t 2 / DAY EMISSIONS FROM CARS Nova Gorica Koper Ljubljana nomago.eu

67 Daily commuters to Ljubljana NG LJ 50 LOST WORKING DAYS/YR/DAILY COMMUTER MB LJ 75 LOST WORKING DAYS/YR/DAILY COMMUTER Maribor KP LJ 50 LOST WORKING DAYS/YR/DAILY COMMUTER Nova Gorica Koper Ljubljana nomago.eu

68 Daily commuters to Ljubljana NG LJ 0,4 MIO LOST TOTAL WORKING HOURS/YR MB LJ 1,8 MIO LOST TOTAL WORKING HOURS/YR Maribor KP LJ 0,75 MIO LOST TOTAL WORKING HOURS/YR Nova Gorica Koper Ljubljana nomago.eu

69 New mobility culture Ljubljana 2030 All-in-one D2D mobility service (for people and goods) Greener and better mobility partnership within city & the region public & commercial transportation Sharing instead of owning More (safe and active) space for pedestrians and micromobility users nomago.eu

70 Nomago 4 areas of developing a greener approach to transportation PUBLIC TRANSPORT SMART CITY SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY SLOVENIA GREEN

71 50:1 Initiative Digital mobility & reduction of ownership Public transport as a backbone of integrated mobility Direct bus lines to Ljubljana Nomago InterCity to 7 countries, 31 cities 1 FULL BUS New e-buses Multimodal zones Buspooling New mobility concept 30 TO 50 FEWER CARS ON THE ROAD

72 Instead of investment in new/wider roads we need to: expand public transport integrate different mobility providers support car ownership reduction improve the quality of commuting promote green modes of transport for daily commute develop intelligent transportation system nomago.eu

73 Come along! nomago.eu

74 dr. Martin Rheinfurth, ekspert za trajnostni razvoj mobilnosti, BASF Chemistry Shapes Future Mobility

75 Agenda 1. Trends in the automotive industry 2. BASF an innovative partner for future mobility 3. We are innovation focused to meet industry needs 2

76 Agenda 1. Trends in the automotive industry 2. BASF an innovative partner for future mobility 3. BASF solutions to face sustainability challenges 3

77 Car production continues to grow Global annual car production (in million) years years Source: internal data, LMCA

78 What happens if the vehicle penetration in China catches up with Mexico? Cars/1000 drivers in Cars on the road in China would grow by >200 million USA Germany Japan Mexico Brazil China India Source: LMCA

79 All OEMs face a major challenge: Emissions reduction CO 2 targets for passenger cars (in g/km) Enacted targets Proposed targets g/km Year 6 CO2 emissions of passenger cars under NEDC cycle. Source: ICCT, EPA

80 Electrification Key drivers Regulation on CO 2 and other emissions Geo-political considerations Challenges Improved vehicle range Reduced battery costs Charging Infrastructure Investments into battery production 7

81 Autonomous Driving Key drivers Convenience and access to mobility Cost advantage in autonomous driving Optimized traffic Safety benefit and less accident repair Challenges Technology Safety of data Legal / regulatory / ethical Local infrastructure 8

82 Autonomous Driving Impact on value chains 2030: autonomous driving enables managed mobility with disruptive potential Completely new vehicle concepts emerge Enabler for increasingly shared mobility BASF Contributions Advanced materials and systems for electronic components, materials for new interior concepts 9

83 Agenda 1. Trends in the automotive industry 2. BASF an innovative partner for future mobility 3. BASF solutions to face sustainability challenges 10

84 BASF We create chemistry Our chemistry is used in almost all industries Sales 2018: 62,675 million Thereof Automotive Driven Sales: 11.6 billion EBIT 2018: 6,353 million Employees (as of December 31, 2018): 122,404 6 Verbund sites and 355 other production sites Expenditures for R&D 2,028 million 11

85 Diversification to meet customer needs for individual driving experience From chemicals to chemistry New molecules From product to industry focus Industry focus System solutions Improved applications Functionalized materials & solutions Batteries, membranes... Classical chemicals Product focus Customized products Chemistry as key enabler for functionalized materials & solutions Deep understanding of customer value chains required 12

86 Our offering is an unparalleled fit to the whole automotive value chain BASF Group Sales 2018 Industry structure* BASF products ~30% OEM Coatings Coolants & brake fluids Plastics for OEMs with own processing Fuel additives & lubricants Cellasto Module/ system supplier Tier-1 Plastics Catalysts Coatings for car parts Battery materials 63 billion Automotive Driven Sales** 11.6 billion ~60% Component supplier Tier-2 Parts supplier Tier-3+ Plastics Catalysts Coatings for car parts Pigments Plastics Pigments Solvents ~10% Aftermarket Refinish coatings Coolants & brake fluids Fuel additives & lubricants 13 * Based on business model, not real supply chain ** Includes Precious Metals

87 Agenda 1. Trends in the automotive industry 2. BASF an innovative partner for future mobility 3. BASF solutions to face sustainability challenges 3.1 CO2 emissions during production 3.2 Efficiency during use 3.3 Clean air 3.4 Alternative powertrains 3.5 Recycling 14

88 Our innovative coating process leads to reduced emissions and energy usage Standard Paint Process E-Coat Primer Basecoat Clearcoat Integrated Paint Process 1 E-Coat 2 Basecoat with primer function 3 + basecoat Clearcoat -20% CO 2 -emissions and energy costs 15

89 Agenda 1. Trends in the automotive industry 2. BASF an innovative partner for future mobility 3. BASF solutions to face sustainability challenges 3.1 CO2 emissions during production 3.2 Efficiency during use 3.3 Clean air 3.4 Alternative powertrains 3.5 Recycling 16

90 We develop light materials for heavy tasks First all-plastic front end carrier less weight less emissions Golf 7 Self-supporting rear seat shell made of the polyurethane Elastolit less weight more energy efficiency Full electric BMW i3 17

91 Agenda 1. Trends in the automotive industry 2. BASF an innovative partner for future mobility 3. BASF solutions to face sustainability challenges 3.1 CO2 emissions during production 3.2 Efficiency during use 3.3 Clean air 3.4 Alternative powertrains 3.5 Recycling 18

92 We help to improve air quality with our innovative catalyst solutions 1975 one car produced emissions as 100 cars today Way- Catalyst 4-Way- Catalyst Tomorrow 19

93 Advanced energy for alternative powertrains 1. Trends in the automotive industry 2. BASF an innovative partner for future mobility 3. BASF solutions to face sustainability challenges 3.1 CO2 emissions during production 3.2 Efficiency during use 3.3 Clean air 3.4 Alternative powertrains 3.5 Recycling 20

94 BASF solutions for your E-Mobility applications Thermal management Car body NIR-reflective pigments NIR-reflective coatings Insulation materials Interior Parts NIR-reflective pigments Electric powertrain Charging infrastructure Housing and structural parts TPU for aesthetics Metal pretreatment chemicals Anti corrosive coatings Flame retardant and halogen free plastics (PA, PBT) Cable and connectors Cable jacketing (TPU) Flame retardant plastics (PA, PBT) Thermal management Hydrolysis-resistant plastics (PBT) Thermal conductive plastics (PA, PBT) Power electronics Thermal conductive plastics (PA, PBT) Flame retardant plastics (PA, PBT) Hydrolysis-resistant plastics (PBT) Cable jacketing (TPU) Lubricants Components for lubricants NVH E-engine mounts (Cellasto) Subframe Mounts (Elasturan LS) Engine cover (PU Elastoflex) Battery packs Battery cell Cathode active materials (CAM) Anode binders Processing Chemicals Battery modules and packs Metal pretreatment chemicals Anti corrosive coatings Flame retardant plastics (PA, PBT) EMI-shielded plastics (PBT) Decoupling elements (Cellasto) Thermal management & Power Supply Coolants Hydrolysis-resistant plastics (PBT) Thermal conductive plastics (PA, PBT) NVH HV battery mounts 21 Fuel Cell End plate, media distribution plate (PA)

95 BASF is a leading supplier for high energy density cathode active materials to the automotive industry Cathode active materials drive battery performance HED Nickel Cobalt Manganese Oxide (NCM) & Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide (NCA) Own precursor and cathode active materials manufacturing Global footprint, R&D, technology centers and production sites Comprehensive IP portfolio BASF s targets and approach Double the range of a midsize car to 600 km Double the battery lifetime Halve the size of the battery Reduce the charging time to 15 minutes Balance chemical composition Optimize production process 22

96 Advanced energy for alternative powertrains 1. Trends in the automotive industry 2. BASF an innovative partner for future mobility 3. BASF solutions to face sustainability challenges 3.1 CO2 emissions during production 3.2 Efficiency during use 3.3 Clean air 3.4 Alternative powertrains 3.5 Recycling 23

97 Precious Metal Automotive Catalysts Recycling Focus on High-Growth & Sustainable Recycling Market Sustainability performance Extracting PGMs through the process of smelting and refining spent automotive and chemical catalysts; results in energy and resource savings Provides a sustainable and economically viable secondary source of the world s limited natural resources Recycling of end-of-life catalysts for use in new generation catalysts that provide clean air, increased energy efficiency and production yields Differentiation potential Customer: Resource efficiency Cost savings downstream Emissions reduction (as applied to new generation autocatalysts) Process information Application: Spent catalyst recycling, precious metals Customer Industry: Catalysts Market: Europe and North America Recycling and recovery of precious metals for cost effective,sustainable use in a new generation of chemicals and autocatalysts 24

98 Contributing to a circular economy through ChemCycling Waste companies supply recyclers with plastic waste Plastic waste is converted into feedstock The waste is collected and sorted by waste companies ChemCycling: Turning plastic waste into new products This feedstock can be used to create all kinds of chemicals and products, including new plastics Consumers and companies use and dispose of products Customers use these to make their own products 25

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100 dr. Ulrich Eberl, futurist, avtor in nekdanji dolgoletni direktor sektorja za Inovacije v komunikacijah pri podjetju Siemens AG Rise of Smart Machines

101 Rise of Smart Machines how they will shape the mobility of tomorrow Illustration: Daimler AG Dr. Ulrich Eberl futurologist, physicist, science journalist, former head of innovation communications at Siemens AG, author of books Life in 2050 and Smart Machines

102 What are the major trends that will influence mobility in the next decades until 2050? Megatrends global and irreversible Demographic change Globalization and migration Urbanization Sustainability, climate change, resource scarcity Digitization, information and communication society Setting the course... The children born today... The houses being built today... The power plants that are commissioned today... The greenhouse gases already emitted determine the world of 2050 The Kondratieff-Waves Waves spanning from 40 to 50 Years 2018: 410 ppm 2018: 50 billion tons CO 2 e

103 Approx. 10 Billion People in 2050 What megatrends are telling us about the future Two times more people older than billion seniors in 2050 Slovenia: 1/3 > 65, 1/8 > 80 in 2050 (today: 1/5 > 65, 1/17 > 80)

104 In 2050 nearly as many people will live in cities than currently on the whole planet An increase of 3 billion in city-population in developing and emerging countries until 2050

105 Computing power, storage capacity and data transfer rate of microchips will increase thousandfold by 2040 China will outgrow the USA in being the largest economy Continuing doing business as usual, our resource and energy consumption might double

106 Raw material consumption could increase twofold to 140 billion tons in 2050 We need: Design2Recycle, closed-loop recycling economy and renewables The challenge: our ecological footprint Doing business as usual, we ll need 3 earths in 2050 Urban land Grazing land Forest land Crop land Carbon footprint Fishing Source: Ministry of Environment, New Zealand Ecological Footprint according to Mathis Wackernagel, Global Footprint Network June 2019 Ulrich Eberl, 2019

107 Part of the solution: Sustainable energy and mobility systems Sustainable energy: wind, water, sun, biomass, geothermics Intelligent Networks Lightweight construction, Design2Recycle, low energy engines Energy Efficiency

108 The fossil age will not end due to a shortage of coal, oil, and gas Climate change, renewables, energy efficiency, pollutants are drivers of a new era We are at the beginning of the era of electricity Electricity becomes the primary source of energy, because it can be produced very environmentally friendly, transferred with high efficiency and consumed with only minor losses Electric motors are three to four times more efficient than combustion engines: Electricity will increasingly replace the oil in traffic (plug-in-hybrids, fuel cell vehicles, pure electric cars, hybrid-electric trucks and buses, trains, even planes) Source: Siemens First electric only airplane with world record engine (250 kw / 50 kg)

109 Systems are becoming more and more complex. More intelligence is needed! The smartphone was only the beginning tomorrow everything will be smart A smart future: The Internet of Things We will need the smart machines: to support the aging population as well as to create sustainable energy and mobility systems, cities worth living and a competitive industry!

110 Smart Mobility (I): hybrid and electric drives for every mode of transportation (cars, buses, trucks, bicycles, ships etc.) Current fields of development for electric drives Wide range of electric vehicles: from delivery van Streetscooter to modular bus TAM Vero to Tushek Apex supercar. Volkswagen Group plans to sell 22 million all-electric cars (70 new models) by 2029 Battery-powered watercraft (e.g. Quadrofoil), all-electric ferries in Norway, electric bicycles, scooters, drones, hybrid-electric aircraft Further development of battery technology necessary: in terms of range, cycles, longevity, costs; fuel cells and wheel hub motors Fast charging (within 5 15 minutes) and wireless charging Integration into the smart grids of the future (stabilisation of the grid)

111 Smart Mobility (II): highly automated transport robot taxis, automated buses, trains, robot delivery, container ships, and drones Driverless transports on roads and in the air Autonomous driving on motorways soon, until 2030 also on country roads and in the city. A driver: the aging society Scene analysis, artificial intelligence, higher safety (91% accidents caused by humans), digital ecosystem in the car Autonomous minibuses in operation, container ships planned Starship Technologies: Autonomous shopping carts Dubai: until 2030 a quarter of the traffic autonomous, on roads and in the air autonomous drones already tested

112 Smart Mobility (III): connected driving vehicles communicate with each other and with the infrastructure to reduce traffic jams and accidents Forward-looking action Smart vehicles communicate with each other and with the infrastructure (traffic lights etc.) to avoid traffic jams and accidents They know where free charging stations and free parking spaces are, they know their owner s favorite places and restaurants They are constantly connected to the Internet and to owner s smart home and smartphone They know the schedule of their owner and the current energy prices and they are constantly participants in the energy market. Source: Siemens June 2019 Ulrich Eberl, 2019

113 Smart Mobility (IV): mobility on demand in a smart city Networking of all modes of transport for sustainable mobility Using mobility packages instead of owning vehicles Networking of all modes of transport: buses, trains, trams, metro, ferries, car sharing, rental e-car, e-bike, e-scooter Always up-to-date information on traffic situation (congestion, alternative routes, means of transport) and booking via smartphone Adaptive traffic light control depending on current traffic situation Pioneers in city mobility: Singapore, Vienna, London 90 seconds interval for subways, congestion charging, integrated mobility card Ljubljana Civitas2020: Modal split 1/3 walking + cycling, 1/3 public transport, 1/3 private cars. Reduction of congestion and air pollution. Already in place: Euro-5, hybrid, CNG buses, electric vehicles, P+R, real-time information on bus arrivals, smart electronic city card

114 In the future, whole cities will get smart (Smart Cities) thanks to the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence Manifold data for optimization Sensors measure energy and water consumption as well as traffic data and pollutant / emission levels City Cockpit summarizes data intelligently, makes forecasts and suggestions for optimization Dynamic energy prices allow for control of consumption. Buildings with PV and cars with batteries operate together linked via 5G and swarm intelligence doing energy trading Mai 2014 Ulrich Eberl, 2014

115 Smart Mobility (V): Smart financing of all modes of transportation new infrastructures, new business models, new technologies Paradigm shifts through artificial intelligence and new needs New infrastructures need a lot of financing: for reorganizing our energy systems (smart grids) and enterprises (smart factory, smart office), for smart buildings, smart logistics, lots of charging stations, 5G mobile communications etc. New business models: mobility packages with all-in-one smartcard, shareconomy, guaranteed availability of systems, predictive maintenance, blockchain, energy contracting Paradigm shifts also in banking itself: artificial intelligence for robo advisors and for pattern recognition in pricing (stock markets, energy, raw materials, purchasing / sales) Smart machines browse documents and videos, take over phone calls, act as virtual advisors / avatars in chats, assess credit ratings New role for financial consultants: reduce complexity for customers, explain the rationale behind the actions. Social and emotional intelligence gets more and more important.

116 Two examples for smart machines understanding text and conducting a dialogue with humans In 2018, Google s dialogue assistant makes a phone call to do a reservation IBM s Watson defeated in 2011 the human world champions in RAM: 16 TB storage, 200 million pages of text, more than the world s largest library

117 At Google I/O 2018 conference: the new dialogue assistant Google Duplex

118 Smart mobility systems will become a part of the power grid and of the information and communication systems of tomorrow Smart Machines and Smart Grids Interdependence of smart systems (smartphones, smart cars, smart grids, smart buildings, smart robots) Multimodal systems (electricity-gasheat) with consumption control and new storage technologies, e.g. car batteries Prosumers (simultaneously producers and consumers) with energy flows in all directions. Internet of Energy User-friendliness communicate through speech and gesture recognition Ultimate goal: sustainable smart mobility for everyone in livable cities and regions

119 The intelligence train doesn t stop here have a look at the hardware! Computing power of microchips is still increasing exponentially 100 billion operations per second. This was the best super-computer available in the mid-90s. Today, every quality smartphone is that fast. By 2040: 1000x more computing power, memory and data transfer rate Miniaturization. If today a notebook costs 500 euros, you ll be able to purchase the same power in 2040 on a chip for about 50 cents.

120 In some areas, smart machines are outperforming people already Two examples from industry and mobility Predictive Maintenance: The computer analyzes sensor data and detects problems long before turbines or trains might fail The best software for traffic sign recognition has an error rate of only 0.54% Source: Siemens The human error rate is twice as large: 1.16%!

121 We will meet smart machines everywhere: on the streets, at home, on the fields in factories and clinics and sometimes we won't be able to tell machines from men!

122 Could this be the world of tomorrow? Smart cities with smart cars, smart grids, smart buildings and hopefully some smart humans!

123 All the best for your personal future in the age of smart machines!

124 For those striving to know more about the future: Find all trends and background information in the book Life in 2050"! Target audience Pupils, students, young adults before choosing a career Teachers, researchers, managers, entrepreneurs, politicians And everyone interested in the future Aim of the book Creating knowledge: What are the main trends? Courage for the future: Kindle enthusiasm for solutions Encourage to participate: Inventing the world of tomorrow Enjoy! 240 pages, illustrated throughout, Euro Currently 5th edition, about 25,000 books sold See also: Contact: Dr. Ulrich Eberl, Altlaufstraße 9, Hoehenkirchen Tel , ulrich.eberl@scipress.de

125 ... and the book "Smarte Maschinen" (in German) describes the latest trends in robotics, automation and artificial intelligence Target audience Pupils, students, young adults Teachers, researchers, managers, entrepreneurs, politicians and everyone interested in the future Aim of the book Creating knowledge: What are the trends in robotics and artificial intelligence? How are they changing our economy and society? Inspiring courage: Don t work against, but with machines! Enjoy! 406 pages, with illustrations and graphics, Euro Since 2016 in hardcover, e-book, Audible, 2 nd edition 2019, translated also into Chinese. See also Contact: Dr. Ulrich Eberl, Altlaufstraße 9, Hoehenkirchen Tel , ulrich.eberl@scipress.de