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PRIPREMA I IZDAVANJE: COMPILED AND PUBLISHED BY: MINISTARSTVO FINANCIJA, ZAVOD ZA MAKROEKONOMSKE ANALIZE I PLANIRANJE MINISTRY OF FINANCE, BUREAU FOR MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND PLANNING KATAN»I EVA 5, 10000 ZAGREB, REPUBLIKA HRVATSKA TEL: (385) 1 4591392 FAX: (385) 1 4591393 Uredniπtvo publikacije / Editorial Board Glavni urednik / Editor-in-chief: mr. sc. Ante Æigman»lanovi uredniπtva / Other members of Editorial Board: dipl. oec. Stanko KrπloviÊ dipl. oec. Ivana Radeljak Dizajn: Design by: - Agencija za komercijalnu djelatnost d.o.o., Zagreb - Agencija za komercijalnu djelatnost d.o.o., Zagreb Tisak: Printed: - Agencija za komercijalnu djelatnost d.o.o., Zagreb - Agencija za komercijalnu djelatnost d.o.o., Zagreb MOLIMO KORISNIKE DA PRILIKOM KORI TENJA PODATAKA IZ OVE PUBLIKACIJE OBAVEZNO NAVEDU IZVOR WHEN USING DATA FROM THIS PUBLICATION, PLEASE CITE THE SOURCE Internet adresa: www.mfin.hr/stat Available on the Internet: www.mfin.hr/stat OZNAKE SYMBOLS privremeni podatak / preliminary data Tiskano u 900 primjeraka. Printed in 900 copies. ISSN 1334-4013 2 kolovoz / August

SADRÆAJ CONTENTS Tablica 1: Osnovni makroekonomski pokazatelji hrvatskog gospodarstva 4 Table 1: Basic Macroeconomic Indicators for the Croatian Economy CROLEI - NavjeπÊujuÊi pokazatelji industrijske proizvodnje 5 CROLEI - Leading indicators of industrial production Makroekonomska kretanja 6 Macroeconomic trends Dræavni proraëun 12 Budgetary Central Government Konsolidirana srediπnja dræava 16 Consolidated Central Government Tablica 2: Prihodi dræavnog proraëuna 18 Table 2: Budgetary Central Government Revenue Tablica 3: Rashodi dræavnog proraëuna 19 Table 3: Budgetary Central Government Expense Tablica 4: Transakcije u nefinancijskoj imovini dræavnog proraëuna 20 Table 4: Transactions in Nonfinancial Assets of Budgetary Central Government Tablica 5: Transakcije u financijskoj imovini dræavnog proraëuna 21 Table 5: Transactions in Financial Assets of Budgetary Central Government Tablica 6: Transakcije u obvezama dræavnog proraëuna 21 Table 6: Transactions in Liabilities of Budgetary Central Government Tablica 7: Transakcije u financijskoj imovini i obvezama, po sektorima 22 Table 7: Transactions in Financial Assets and Liabilities, by sectors Tablica 8: IzvjeπÊe o operacijama dræavnog proraëuna 23 Table 8: Statement of Budgetary Central Government Operations RazliËite mjere manjka/viπka dræavnog proraëuna 24 Measures of Budgetary Central Government deficit/surplus Tablica 9: Transakcije Hrvatskog zavoda za mirovinsko osiguranje (HZMO) 25 Table 9: The Croatian Institute for Pension Insurance (HZMO) Transactions Tablica 10: Transakcije Hrvatskog zavoda za zdravstveno osiguranje (HZZO) 26 Table 10: The Croatian Health Insurance Institute (HZZO) Transactions Tablica 11: Transakcije Hrvatskog zavoda za zapoπljavanje (HZZ) 27 Table 11: The Croatian Employment Service (HZZ) Transactions Tablica 12: Transakcije javnog poduzeêa Hrvatske vode 28 Table 12: The Croatian Waters Transactions Tablica 13: Transakcije Fonda za zaπtitu okoliπa i energetsku uëinkovitost 29 Table 13: The Environment Protection Fund Transactions Tablica 14: Transakcije Hrvatskih autocesta d.o.o. (HAC) 30 Table 14: The Croatian Motorways Ltd. Transactions Tablica 15: Transakcije Hrvatskih cesta d.o.o. (HC) 31 Table 15: The Croatian Roads Ltd. Transactions Tablica 16: Transakcije Dræavne agencije za osiguranje πtednih uloga i sanaciju banaka (DAB) 32 Table 16: The State Agency for Deposit Insurance and Banks RehabilitationTransactions Tablica 17: Transakcije Hrvatskog fonda za privatizaciju (HFP) 33 Table 17: The Croatian Privatization Fund Transactions Tablica 18: Konsolidirana srediπnja dræava prema ekonomskoj klasifikaciji 34 Table 18: Consolidated Central Government by Economic Category Tablica 19: Konsolidirana srediπnja dræava prema razinama dræavne vlasti 35 Table 19: Consolidated Central Government According to Government Level Tablica 23: Stanje duga opêe dræave 36 Table 23: General Government Debt Stock Javni dug 37 Public Debt Tablica 24: Unutarnji dug konsolidirane srediπnje dræave 39 Table 24: Consolidated Central Government Domestic Debt Tablica 25: Rezultati aukcija Trezorskih zapisa Ministarstva financija 40 Table 25: Results of the Treasury Bill's Auctions held by the Ministry of Finance Trezorski zapisi 41 Treasury Bills Metodoloπka objaπnjenja 42 Notes on Methodology Rukovodstvo Ministarstva financija 50 Management of the Ministry of Finance Kalendar objavljivanja 51 Advance Release Calendar kolovoz / August 3

TABLICA 1: OSNOVNI MAKROEKONOMSKI POKAZATELJI HRVATSKOG GOSPODARSTVA TABLE 1: BASIC MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE CROATIAN ECONOMY 1999. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2004.. 2004.. Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 XI. XII. I. II. III. IV. V. VI. VII. VIII. BDP, tekuêe cijene (mil. HRK) 141 579 152 519 165 639 179 390 193 067 207 082 51 220 56 820 51 986 49 574 55 349 - - - - - - - - - - GDP, current prices (mil. HRK) BDP, realne stope rasta -0,9 2,9 4,4 5,2 4,3 3,8 3,8 3,6 3,6 1,8 5,1 - - - - - - - - - - GDP, real growth rates FiziËki obujam industrijske proizvodnje, stopa rasta u % -1,4 1,7 6,0 5,4 4,1 3,7 2,3 2,9 3,9 0,2 8,9 5,9 9,7 6,3-1,6-2,9 6,3 8,2 12,3 5,4 4,7 Total volume of industrial production, growth rate as % Promet u trgovini na malo, realna stopa rasta u % -0,4 14,4 9,5 12,6 3,7 2,6 0,3 4,6 2,3 0,6 5,2 4,5 1,7 1,1-3,3 3,5 2,0 6,6 7,3 2,0 - Retail sales turnover, real growth rate as % Indeks fiziëkog obujma graappleevinskih radova, stopa rasta u % -7,7-9,1 3,6 12,8 22,8 2,0 6,4-3,2-4,8-6,6-5,6-1,6-0,5-1,0-11,0-6,9-6,5-6,7-3,6-3,6 - Total volume of construction projects, growth rate as % NoÊenja turista, stopa rasta u % -15,0 45,0 11,0 3,0 4,0 2,0-2,0 3,0 5,0 6,0 0,5 9,0-3,0-3,0-10,0 21,0-11,0 8,0 0,0 13,0 7,0 Nights spent by tourists, growth rate as % kolovoz / August ProizvoappleaËke cijene, prosjek, % 2,6 9,7 3,6-0,4 1,9 3,5 3,2 5,1 5,5 4,8 3,2 5,5 4,8 4,4 5,1 5,1 4,5 2,3 2,4 2,3 1,5 Producer's prices, period average, % PotroπaËke cijene, prosjek, % 4,0 4,6 3,7 1,7 1,8 2,1 2,3 1,8 2,3 3,1 3,0 2,3 2,7 2,0 3,3 3,9 3,5 2,8 2,9 3,1 3,1 Consumer prices, period average, % Ukupno zaposleni, kraj razdoblja 1 333 123 1 321 476 1 340 504 1 351 364 1 387 910 1 397 416 1 424 275 1 423 210 1 397 416 1 384 154 1 417 284 1 407.484 1 397 416 1 387 637 1 382 588 1 384 154 1 390 813 1 403 404 1 417 284 1 427 462 1 429 303 Total persons in employment, end of period Broj nezaposlenih, kraj razdoblja 341 730 378 544 395 141 366 162 318 684 317 577 295 646 299 469 317 577 329 020 297 602 312 786 317 577 326 938 330 183 329 020 320 283 308 311 297 602 293 176 291 014 Unemployed persons, end of period Stopa nezaposlenosti, kraj razdoblja 20,4 22,6 23,1 21,5 19,1 18,5 17,2 17,4 18,5 19,2 17,4 18,2 18,5 19,1 19,3 19,2 18,7 18,0 17,4 17,0 16,9 Unemployment rate, end of period Stopa anketne nezaposlenosti, prosjek, % 13,6 16,1 15,8 14,8 14,3 13,8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Unemployment rate - ILO comparable, period average, % ProsjeËna mjeseëna bruto plaêa, stopa rasta u % 10,2 7,0 3,9 6,0 4,8 6,4 6,4 6,7 5,9 4,4 4,5 8,1 6,0 3,4 4,4 5,3 3,1 6,1 4,3 2,6 - Average monthly gross wages and salaries, growth rate as % ProsjeËna mjeseëna bruto plaêa, kune 4 551 4 869 5 061 5 366 5 623 5 985 6 002 5 988 6 110 6 087 6 273 6 276 6 139 6 013 5 965 6 280 6 112 6 358 6 348 6 199 - Average monthly gross wages and salaries paid off in HRK TeËaj HRK/USD, prosjek 7,11 8,28 8,34 7,86 6,70 6,04 6,17 6,05 5,84 5,72 5,83 5,83 5,64 5,74 5,78 5,65 5,72 5,76 6,01 6,06 5,98 Exchange rate HRK/USD$, period average TeËaj HRK/EUR, prosjek 7,58 7,64 7,47 7,41 7,56 7,50 7,44 7,38 7,55 7,51 7,35 7,55 7,55 7,56 7,52 7,46 7,40 7,33 7,31 7,30 7,35 Exchange rate HRK/EUR, period average Vanjskotrgovinska bilanca (mil. USD) -3 485-3 455-4 481-5 818-8 022-8 561-2 393-2 062-2 273-2 082-2 730-766 -779-547 -576-981 -874-917 -945-839 -748 Trade Balance (mil. US$) Izvoz (mil. USD) 4 247 4 432 4 666 4 904 6 187 8 022 1 914 2 059 2 232 1 957 2 310 744 772 577 682 699 824 700 802 705 703 Exports (mil. US$) Uvoz (mil. USD) 7 732 7 887 9 147 10 722 14 209 16 583 4 307 4 122 4 505 4 039 5 039 1 510 1 550 1 124 1 258 1 680 1 698 1 617 1 746 1 545 1 452 Imports (mil. US$) TekuÊi raëun platne bilance (mil. USD) -1 408-471 -727-1 917-2 132-1 896-825 2 430-1 724-2 023-1 441 - - - - - - - - - - Current Account Balance (mil. USD) TekuÊi raëun platne bilance (% BDP-a) -7,0-2,5-3,7-8,7-7,3-5,2-9,80 26,00-19,10-23,20-14,90 - - - - - - - - - - Current Account Balance (as % of GDP) Devizne rezerve HNB, krajem razdoblja (mil. USD) 3 025 3 525 4 704 586 8 191 8 759 7 769 7 949 8 759 8 680 8 519 8 388 8 759 859 8 665 8 680 8 781 8 751 8 520 8 530 8 626 International reserves of CNB, end of period (mil. USD) Ukupni vanjski dug RH, krajem razdoblja (mil. USD) 10 143 11 282 11 870 15 680 24 759 30 859 26 615 26 987 30 859 29 982-29 341 30 859 29 568 29 822 29 929 30 187 29 775 29 189 29 161 - Total outstanding external debt,end of period (mil. USD) Unutarnji dug konsolidirane srediπnje dræave, k.r. (mil. HRK) 13 944 14 550 21 944 23 597 26 261 35 789 29 964 34 200 35 789 45 145 45 279 36 875 35 789 38 457 39 559 45 145 44 996 45 203 45 279 46 598 - Internal debt of consolidated central government, eop. (mil. HRK) Krediti poslovnih banaka, % godiπnja promjena -4,8 10,1 23,2 33,6 16,8 13,1 11,2 12,6 13,1 16,8 20,5 13,2 13,1 13,3 14,3 16,8 16,0 19,8 20,5 18,7 18,9 Commercial bank's loans, growth rate as % Kamatna stopa na trezorske zapise od 91 dan, kraj razdoblja 11,50% 7,50% 4,00% 2,00% 4,00% 3,80% 3,95% 5,25% 3,80% 4,55% 4,00% 4,10% 3,80% 4,00% 3,50% 4,55% 3,60% 4,00% 4,00% 4,20% 4,00% Interest rates on treasury bills of 91 days maturity, end of period ZIBOR (3 mj.), prosjek 15,30% 11,10% 7,90% 4,60% 5,50% 7,35% 6,36% 7,85% 7,01% 6,52% 5,74% 6,86% 6,68% 6,59% 6,47% 6,50% 5,75% 5,32% 6,15% 6,43% 7,43% ZIBOR (3 m), average Izvor: Dræavni zavod za statistiku, Hrvatska narodna banka, Ministarstvo financija Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Croatian National Bank, Ministry of Finance 4

CROLEI NAVJE UJU I POKAZATELJI INDUSTRIJSKE PROIZVODNJE U srpnju. godine CROLEI prognostiëki indeks iskazao je peti uzastopni mjeseëni porast vrijednosti u iznosu od samo 0,01 boda. Iako je taj porast umjeren, u usporedbi s porastom iz svibnja (0,09 bodova) i lipnja (0,19), te se zapravo moæe smatrati stagnacijom, i dalje se moæe zakljuëiti da se u sljedeêih πest mjeseci oëekuje lagani rast ekonomske aktivnosti u zemlji. Istodobno, difuzni indeks za srpanj. iznosi iznimno niskih 27,3 posto, Ëime se zapravo takoappleer moæe potvrditi konstatacija o stagniranju vrijednosti CROLEI indeksa za ovaj mjesec. Niska vrijednost difuznog indeksa u srpnju. godine rezultat je pada desezoniranih vrijednosti osam komponenti CROLEI indeksa, dok su istodobno samo tri komponente, dvije iz realnog sektora i jedna iz monetarnog sektora, iskazale rast desezoniranih vrijednosti. Ovaj podatak nam govori o usko zasnovanom rastu vrijednosti indeksa u ovom mjesecu, Ëije su tri komponente koje su iskazale rast vrijednosti zabiljeæile iznadprosjeëan mjeseëni rast, dok je mjeseëni pad vrijednosti preostalih komponenti relativno malen. U strukturi CROLEI indeksa, osam komponenti je zabiljeæilo pad desezonirane vrijednosti, dok su tri komponente indeksa ostvarile rast. Rast desezoniranih vrijednosti zabiljeæile su komponente ukupni broj noêenja turista i promet u trgovini na malo iz realnog sektora, te komponenta gotov novac iz monetarnog sektora. Pri tome gledajuêi unatrag, komponente gotov novac i promet u trgovini na malo biljeæe viπemjeseëni uzastopni rast, dok vrijednost komponente gotov novac uglavnom oscilira. S druge strane, pad desezoniranih vrijednosti zabiljeæile su preostale komponente iz realnog i monetarnog sektora te komponente iz fiskalnog sektora i sektora meappleunarodne trgovine. Kod svih komponenti koje su ostvarile pad desezoniranih vrijednosti vaæno je napomenuti da ni kod jedne od njih nije uoëen dugotrajniji pad vrijednosti, veê je pad za mjesec srpanj. ili prva negativna mjeseëna stopa rasta nakon nekoliko mjeseci uzastopnog rasta ili je odraz oscilirajuêeg kretanja komponente. CROLEI LEADING INDICATORS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION In July, CROLEI prognostic index recorded a fifth consecutive monthly increase of its value although it amounted to only 0.01 points. Although moderate if compared to May increase (0.09 points) and June increase (0.19 points), and it can be treated as stagnation, this increase points out to a moderate growth of economic activity during following six months. In the same time, diffusive index stood at the low level of 27.3 percent, which confirms the stagnation of CROLEI index in the observed month. Low level of diffusive index originates from a decrease in eight seasonally adjusted components of the index, while in the same time only three components, two from real sector and one from monetary recorded an increase of their seasonally adjusted values. This points out to a narrow source of an increase of the index value, where the increase in those three components was above the average, while decreases of other components were relatively moderate in the same time. Within the structure of the index, eight of CROLEI components recorded a decrease of their seasonally adjusted values, while only three recorded an increase. Increases were recorded in seasonally adjusted values of total tourist bed-nights and in real retail trade turnover from real sector and total cash of participants in the payment system from monetary sector. Observing these components in last several months, increases were constantly reported for components total tourist bed-nights and real retail trade while total cash of participants in the payment system oscillated. On the other hand, decreases were recorded in other components from real, monetary, fiscal sector and international trade sector. It is worth to mention that out of all of the components that recorded a decrease not even one of them recorded a longer period decrease of its value. Namely, for most of the components which recorded a decrease this was a first decrease of their value in or it is just a reflection of the oscillating trend of the component. 124 120 Crolei i industrijska proizvodnja Crolei and industrial production (I. 2000. - VII..) 114 112 desezonirani indeksi seasonally adjusted indices (2000=100) 116 112 108 104 110 108 106 104 102 100 I/00 IV VII X I/01 IV VII X I/02 IV VII X I/03 IV VII X I/04 IV VII X I/05 IV VII 100 CROLEI IND mjesec/godina month/year kolovoz / August 5

MAKROEKONOMSKA KRETANJA REALNI SEKTOR Nakon visokog realnog rasta ukupnog prometa trgovine na malo od 7,3 u lipnju, u srpnju je doπlo do usporavanja rasta trgovine na malo. Najvaæniji uzrok usporavanja meappleugodiπnjeg rasta u srpnju jest efekt baznog razdoblja. Naime, u srpnju 2004. godine zabiljeæena je najviπa stopa rasta trgovine na malo u prethodnoj godini, πto je prije svega posljedica visokog porasta prodaje osobnih automobila zbog izmjena troπarina na automobile. Nominalna meappleugodiπnja stopa rasta prometa od trgovine na malo u srpnju iznosila je 5,7 posto. Ako se iskljuëi utjecaj inflacije, realni rast trgovine na malo iznosio je 2 posto. Promatra li se razdoblje od prvih sedam mjeseci tekuêe godine, meappleugodiπnji nominalni rast prometa od trgovine na malo iznosio je 6,4 posto, dok je realni rast iznosio 3 posto. PromatrajuÊi nominalni promet trgovine na malo prema djelatnostima, moæe se vidjeti da najviπi rast u prvih sedam mjeseci i dalje biljeæe prodaja, odræavanje i popravak motornih vozila (14,1 posto) te trgovina na malo motornim gorivima i mazivima (24,6 posto), na πto je utjecalo i poveêanje cijena nafte. IskljuËujuÊi stambene kredite, krediti stanovniπtvu i u srpnju zabiljeæili su visoku stopu rasta od 18,2 posto, πto je podræalo rast trgovine na malo, a o kretanju kredita stanovniπtvu u nadolazeêem razdoblju u znatnoj mjeri ovisit Êe i kretanje trgovine na malo. Prema podacima Dræavnoga zavoda za statistiku, industrijska proizvodnja zabiljeæila je u kolovozu. godine meappleugodiπnju stopu rasta od 4,7 posto. Rast industrije u kolovozu joπ viπe dobiva na vaænosti kad se uzme u obzir Ëinjenica o istom broju radnih dana u kolovozu tekuêe i prethodne godine. U prvih osam mjeseci tekuêe godine, industrijska proizvodnja porasla je 4,8 posto u usporedbi s prvih osam mjeseci prethodne godine. UsporeappleujuÊi stopu rasta s prvih osam mjeseci prethodne godine moæe se vidjeti da je ona ove godine za 1,2 postotna boda viπa. PromatrajuÊi trend indeks ukupne industrijske proizvodnje, on je u kolovozu u usporedbi sa srpnjem. godine porastao za 0,1 posto. Gledano prema glavnim industrijskim grupacijama, najviπi rast u prvih osam mjeseci biljeæe kapitalni proizvodi (14,7 posto) te netrajni proizvodi za πiroku potroπnju (6,3 posto) i intermedijarni proizvodi osim energije (6,3 posto). Promatrano prema djelatnostima, lagani pad zabiljeæili su opskrba elektriënom energijom, plinom i vodom (-1,9 posto) te rudarstvo i vaappleenje (-4,1 posto), dok je preraappleivaëka industrija, koja ima najveêi udio u ukupnoj industrijskoj proizvodnji (82,5 posto), zabiljeæila rast od 6,4 posto. NajveÊi doprinos rastu preraappleivaëke industrije u prvih osam mjeseci. godine dolazi od proizvodnje hrane i piêa, koja je porasla za 5,7 posto, te izdavaëke i tiskarske djelatnosti (21,1 posto), dok od ostalih kategorija visoke stope rasta biljeæe proizvodnja strojeva i ureappleaja (16,2 posto) i proizvodnja ostalih prometnih sredstava (6,9 posto). Ukupan broj dolazaka turista u srpnju tekuêe godine bio je na 10,6 posto viπoj razini nego u srpnju prethodne godine, Ëemu je najviπe pridonijelo poveêanje dolazaka stranih turista (11,2 posto), dok su dolasci domaêih turista poveêani 5,2 posto. Promatrano kroz svih sedam mjeseci tekuêe godine, zabiljeæen je rast dolazaka turista od 6,8 posto. Za razliku od prethodne godine kad broj noêenja nije pratio visok rast broja dolazaka turista, ove godine je u srpnju meappleugodiπnja stopa rasta noêenja od 13 posto Ëak premaπila rast broja dolazaka. Rastu noêenja najviπe je pridonio porast noêenja stranih turista (13,2 posto), dok se broj noêenja domaêih turista poveêao 11,1 posto. U prvih sedam mjeseci ukupan broj noêenja zabiljeæio je meappleugodiπnji rast od 7,5 posto. Prema podacima Dræavnog zavoda za statistiku trend smanjenja nezaposlenosti nastavljen je i u srpnju. godine. Ukupan broj nezaposlenih smanjio se u srpnju u usporedbi s lipnjem za gotovo 4,5 tisuêa ili 1,5 posto, dok je u usporedbi 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 99 97 95 Izvor: DZS Source: CBS Izvor: DZS Source: CBS Promet od trgovine na malo Retail trade turnover I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII 2004 Realni rast trgovine na malo / Real growth of retail trade Nominalni rast trgovine na malo / Nominal growth of retail trade Rast ukupnih dolazaka i noêenja turista Growth of total tourist arrivals and nights 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII 2004 Ukupns noêenja turista / Total number of tourist nights Ukupni dolasci turista / Total number of tourist arrivals sa srpnjem 2004. godine nezaposlenost bila na pribliæno istoj razini. Stopa nezaposlenosti u srpnju. bila je 17 posto, πto je ista razina kao u istom mjesecu prethodne godine, dok je u usporedbi s lipnjem tekuêe godine smanjena za 0,4 postotna poena. Ukupan broj zaposlenih osoba dosegnuo je u srpnju razinu od 1.417.284 te se u usporedbi s prethodnim mjesecom poveêao za 13,9 tisuêa ili 1 posto. 6 kolovoz / August

MACROECONOMIC TRENDS THE REAL SECTOR After the high growth of retail trade turnover of 7.3 percent in June, in July there was deceleration retail trade growth. The most important reason of growth deceleration in annual terms in July was the base period effect. Namely, in July 2004 the highest growth rate in the whole previous year was recorded, which was mainly a result of high growth in car sales due to change in excises. Nominal annual growth of retail trade turnover in July amounted to 5.7 percent. If the influence of inflation is excluded, real growth of retail trade amounted to 2 percent. When the period of first seven months of current year is observed, annual nominal growth of retail trade amounted to 6.4 percent while real growth amounted to 3 percent. By observing nominal retail trade by activities, the highest growth in first seven months was recorded in sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (14.1 percent) and retail trade of automotive fuel (24.6) which was also influenced by growth in oil prices. When housing loans are excluded, credits to households in July also recorded high annual growth of 18.2 percent which supported retail trade growth. Retail trade growth in the forthcoming period will be significantly influenced by household credit developments. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics data, industrial production grew in August by 4.7 percent. This growth gets even more on significance when the fact about same number of working days in August of this and previous year is considered. In the first eight months of this year industrial production grew by 4.8 percent when compared to the same period of previous year. Comparison of growth in the first eight months of this and previous year shows 1.2 percentage points higher growth in this than in previous year. In August, the trend index of the total industrial production was 0.1 percent higher than in July. Observed by the main industrial groupings capital goods recorded the highest growth of 14.7 percent in the first eight months of the current year while intermediate goods except energy and non durable consumer goods grew by 6.3 percent. Among the activities that recorded decrease were electricity, gas and water supply (-1.9 percent) and mining and quarrying (-4.1 percent) while manufacturing, which has the highest share in the total industrial 000 1.440 1.430 1.420 1.410 1.400 1.390 1.380 1.370 1.360 1.350 1.340 Izvor: DZS Source: CBS indeksi / indices 2000=100 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 Izvor: DZS Source: CBS Zaposlenost i nezaposlenost Employment and unemployment 20 19 19 18 18 17 17 16 16 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII 2004 Ukupan broj zaposlenih (lijevo) / Number of employed persons (left) Stopa nezaposlenosti (desno) / Unemployment rate (right) Meappleugodiπnji rast potroπaëkih i proizvoappleaëkih cijena Annual growth of consumers and producers prices I III V VII IX XI 2003 I III V VII IX XI 2004 I III V VII Izvorni indeksi / Basic indices Desezonirani indeksi / Seasonally adjusted indices Trend ciklus / Trend - cycle production, recorded an increase of 6.4 percent. The highest contribution to the growth in industry in the first eight months came from manufacture of food products and beverages which grew by 5.7 percent and publishing and printing (21.1 percent) while higher growth among other categories recorded, manufacture of machinery and equipment (16.2 percent) and manufacture of other transport equipment (6.9 percent) Total number of tourist arrivals in July increased by 10.6 percent when compared to the July of the previous year which was mostly contributed by foreign tourist arrivals (11.2 percent) while domestic tourist arrivals grew by 5.2 percent. When the whole seven months period of the current year is observed, it can be seen that the number of tourist arrivals increased by 5.2 percent. As compared to the previous year when high growth in tourist arrivals wasn't followed by growth in tourist nights, this year annual growth of tourist nights in July amounted to 13 percent and even exceeded growth in tourist arrivals. Growth in total tourist nights was mostly contributed by growth of foreign tourist nights (13.2 percent) while domestic tourist nights grew by 11.1 percent. In the first seven months, total number of tourist nights grew by 7.5 percent. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics data, the trend of decreasing unemployment was continued in July. Total number of unemployed persons decreased in July when compared to June by 4.5 thousands or 1.5 percent and when compared to the July 2004, unemployment was on approximately same level. The unemployment rate amounted to 17 percent in July which is the same level as in July 2004 and when compared to the June it decreased by 0.4 percentage points. Total number of employed persons reached the level of 1.417.284 in July and increased by 13.9 thousands or 1 percent compared to the previous month. % kolovoz / August 7

MONETARNI SEKTOR Kretanje kamatnih stopa na Træiπtu novca Zagreb pokazivalo je visoku likvidnost bankovnog sustava u prvoj polovici tekuêe godine. Nakon prosjeëne dnevne kamatne stope od 4,14 posto u prosincu 2004. godine, kamatna stopa smanjila se na 2,88 posto u sijeënju. godine. Neπto viπe prosjeëne dnevne kamatne stope zabiljeæene su u iduêa dva mjeseca, tj. 3,40 posto u veljaëi i 3,39 posto u oæujku, da bi se ponovno spustile na nisku razinu od 2,51 posto u travnju. Nakon prosjeënih dnevnih kamatnih stopa od 2,59 posto u svibnju i 3,34 posto u lipnju, u srpnju je zabiljeæeno poveêanje na prosjeënih 5,66 posto, a u kolovozu na 7,66 posto. Osim poveêanja kamatnih stopa koje se periodiëki javlja pribliæno svakoga osmoga u mjesecu zbog toga πto je to datum izdvajanja obvezne priëuve, na kretanje kamatnih stopa utjecali su i drugi faktori. Tako je na poveêanje kamatnih stopa u veljaëi utjecalo izdavanje nove dræavne obveznice koja je izdana poëetkom oæujka. Vrijednost izdanja navedene obveznice iznosila je 3 milijarde kuna, dok je rok dospijeêa 5 godina. Na viπe kamatne stope u srpnju utjecalo je izdanje nove domaêe dræavne obveznice od 350 milijuna eura. Drugi vaæan faktor koji je utjecao na poveêanje kamatnih stopa u ljetnim mjesecima poveêana je potraænja za kunama zbog turistiëke sezone, πto se ogleda i u aprecijaciji kune u navedenom razdoblju. S druge strane, na smanjenje kamatnih stopa na novëanom træiπtu djelovale su devizne intervencije Hrvatske narodne banke. U sijeënju je tako od poslovnih banaka otkupljeno 8,5 milijuna eura, u oæujku je u dodatne dvije intervencije otkupljeno 108,5 milijuna eura, a u travnju je izvrπena devizna intervencija u kojoj je otkupljeno 90 milijuna eura. Posljednje dvije intervencije provedene su u lipnju, kad je ukupni iznos otkupljenih eura bio 85,4 milijuna. U veljaëi. godine Hrvatska narodna banka donijela je odreappleene promjene u instrumentima monetarne politike. Tako je poveêana obvezatna graniëna priëuva te su banke morale 30 posto neto prirasta svog inozemnog zaduæenja beskamatno deponirati na devizne raëune srediπnje banke. Prijaπnja je stopa iznosila 24 posto, a odluka je donesena na temelju znatnog poveêanja inozemnog zaduæivanja banaka potkraj 2004. godine. PoveÊano zaduæivanje banaka u inozemstvu izazvalo je joπ jednu reakciju Narodne banke te je obvezatna graniëna priëuva poveêana na 40 posto u svibnju, a donesena je i odluka kojom se obraëunati devizni dio obvezatne priëuve koji se izvrπava u kunama poveêava sa 42 na 50 posto. Vaæna promjena odnosila se na instrument minimalno potrebnih deviznih potraæivanja. Naime, minimalna pokrivenost deviznih obveza banaka deviznim potraæivanjima smanjena je s 35 na 32 posto. Cilj promjene bio je pomoê dræavi u veêem financiranju na domaêem træiπtu oslobaappleanjem oko 4 milijarde kuna koje su trebale poveêati likvidnost bankovnog sektora u svrhu financiranja dræave, bez istiskivanja ostalih sektora. U travnju su uvedene, a u lipnju su se znatnije i poëele primjenjivati najavljivane operacije na otvorenom træiπtu koje Êe 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 3.1. 17.1. 31.1. 14.2. Izvor: INFOFORUM Source: INFOFORUM zaduæivanje dospijeêa milijuni HRK 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 Izvor: MFIN Source: MFIN Kretanje ZIBOR-a ZIBOR developments 14.3. 28.3. 11.4. 25.4. 9.5. 23.5. 6.6. 20.6. 4.7. 18.7. 1.8. 15.8. 29.8. O / N ZIBOR 1W ZIBOR 1M ZIBOR Narodnoj banci omoguêiti fino podeπavanje novca u sustavu. PoËetak njihova intenzivnog koriπtenja u ljetnim mjesecima bio je uvjetovan poveêanom potrebom za likvidnoπêu te je najviπa vrijednost repo-aukcije ostvarena potkraj kolovoza u iznosu od 4,9 milijarde kuna. 28.2. 4.1. 18.1. 1.2. 15.2. 1.3. Financiranje dræave Goverment financing 15.3. 29.3. 12.4. 26.4. 10.5. 24.5. 7.6. 21.6. 5.7. 19.7. 2.8. 16.8. 30.8. DospjeÊa po dugoroënim financijskim instrumentima / Maturities by longterm financial instruments DospjeÊa trezorskih zapisa / Treasury bills maturities Zaduæivanje dugoroënim financijskim instrumentima / Issues of longterm financial instruments Emisija trezorskih zapisa / Treasury bills issues 8 kolovoz / August

MONETARY TRENDS Interest rates developments on the Zagreb money market indicated high liquidity of the banking system in the first six months of the current year. After average daily interest rate of 4.14 percent in December 2004, interest rate fell down to 2.88 percent in January. Somewhat higher average daily interest rates were recorded in next two months, i.e. 3.40 percent in February and 3.39 percent in March, while in April they again decreased to the lower level of 2.51 percent. After the average daily interest rates of 2.59 percent in May and 3.34 percent in June, average interest rates increased to 5.66 in July and 7.66 percent in August. Except of periodical increase in interest rates which happens every eights in the months due to allocation of reserve requirement, there are also other factors that influenced interest rates developments. An increase in interest rates in March was influenced by new government bond which was issued in the beginning of March. Face value of the mentioned bond is 3 billion kuna with maturity of 5 years. Higher level of interest rates in July was influenced by new domestic government bond issue in amount of 350 million euro. The second important factor that influenced on increase of interest rates in summer months was increased demand for kuna due to tourist season which was also accompanied by kuna appreciation in the observed period. On the other side, foreign exchange interventions of central bank influenced on the decrease of interest rates in money market. In January, 8.5 million euros was bought from commercial banks, in two additional interventions in March central bank bought 108.5 million euros and with foreign exchange intervention in April it was bought 90 million euros. The last two interventions were undertaken in June when the total amount of 85.4 million euros was bought. milijuni HRK 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0-500 -1.000-1.500-2000 Izvor: HNB Source: CNB Izvor: HNB Source: CNB Devizne intervencije i operacije na otvorenom træiπtu HNB-a Foreign exchange interventions and open market operations of CNB 4.1. 18.1. 1.2. 15.2. 1.3. 15.3. 29.3. 12.4. 26.4. 10.5. 24.5. 7.6. 21.6. 5.7. 19.7. 2.8. 16.8. 30.8. Neto iznos emisije HRK po repo aukcijama / Net issues of HRK by reverse repo auctions Emisija kuna deviznim aukcijama / Kuna issues by foreign exchange interventions GraniËna obvezna priëuva i minimalna devizna potraæivanja Marginal reserve requirement and minimum requierd amount of foreign currency claims 41 37 33 29 25 21 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII 2004 GraniËna obvezna priëuva / Marginal reserve requirement Minimalno potrebna devizna potraæivanja / Minimum required amount of foreign currency claims In February central bank made some changes in monetary policy instruments. The marginal reserve requirement was increased and commercial banks will have to allocate 30 percent of their net external debt increase to the central bank accounts without any interests paid. Previous rate amounted to 24 percent, and it was increased due to significant increase in foreign debt of banks at the end of year 2004. Increased external borrowings of commercial banks induced one more reaction of National bank and obligatory marginal reserve requirement was increased to 40 percent in May and the decision about increase of calculated foreign exchange reserves that has to be executed in kuna was increased from 42 to 50 percent. Important change concerns the minimum required amount of foreign currency claims. Namely, the rate of minimum requirement of foreign currency claims was decreased from 35 to 32 percent. The main purpose was to help government in higher domestic financing with release of 4 billion kuna which should increase banking sector liquidity in order to help government financing without crowding out other sectors. In April were introduced and in June started to be used open market operations which will enable National bank to fine tune liquidity in the system. Beginning of their intensive use in summer months was conditioned by higher liquidity demand and the highest value of reverse repo auction was recorded at the end of August in amount of 4.9 billion kuna. kolovoz / August 9

ME UNARODNI SEKTOR Nakon najviπe stope rasta izvoza u. godini koja je zabiljeæena u lipnju (29,3 posto), u srpnju je izvoz bio na 5 posto niæoj razini nego u srpnju 2004. godine. Takvo kretanje djelomice se moæe pripisati i visokoj bazi jer je u srpnju prethodne godine zabiljeæen visok rast izvoza od 22,7 posto. Meappleugodiπnja stopa rasta uvoza u srpnju bila je neπto niæa od prosjeka u dosadaπnjem dijelu godine te je iznosila 6,7 posto. PromatrajuÊi robnu razmjenu u prvih sedam mjeseci, moæe se vidjeti da je ukupni robni izvoz porastao 6 posto, dok je istodobno uvoz porastao 7,8 posto. Pokrivenost uvoza izvozom u prvih sedam mjeseci bila je na razini od 46,8 posto, πto je smanjenje od 0,8 postotnih bodova u usporedbi s istim razdobljem 2004. godine, dok je deficit robne razmjene u promatranom razdoblju porastao 9,5 posto. PromatrajuÊi robnu razmjenu prema djelatnostima, najveêi doprinos rastu izvoza doπao je od proizvodnje hrane i piêa, koja je porasla 36,8 posto, proizvodnje strojeva i ureappleaja 35,4 posto, proizvodnje koksa i naftnih derivata (16,8 posto) te proizvodnje kemikalija i kemijskih proizvoda (15,4 posto). NajveÊi negativni doprinos rastu izvoza doπao je od proizvodnje ostalih prijevoznih sredstava koja je u promatranom razdoblju zabiljeæila meappleugodiπnji pad od 25,6 posto. NajznaËajniji porast na strani uvoza zabiljeæen je u kategoriji vaappleenja sirove nafte i zemnog plina koja je zabiljeæila rast od 52,7 posto. PromatrajuÊi tri kategorije s najveêim udjelom u ukupnom izvozu, moæe se zamijetiti da je i dalje najveêa promjena u terminima doprinosa rastu zabiljeæena u kategoriji izvoza ostalih prijevoznih sredstava. U prvih sedam mjeseci 2004. godine doprinos rastu izvoza spomenute kategorije iznosio je 6,3 postotna boda da bi se u prvih sedam mjeseci. godine spustio na -4,2 postotnih bodova. Ako se iz izvoza i uvoza iskljuëi kategorija ostalih prijevoznih sredstava, izvoz je u prvih sedam mjeseci porastao 12,2 posto, dok je uvoz istodobno porastao 8,1 posto. Analognom primjenom analize na uvoz moæe se vidjeti da je glavni uzrok porastu uvoza u prvih sedam mjeseci porast uvoza sirove nafte i zemnog plina. Uvoz u promatranom razdoblju raste 7,8 posto, no iskljuëi li se poveêanje cijena nafte, taj rast iznosi oko 4,5 posto. NajveÊi udio u ukupnom robnom izvozu i dalje ima izvoz u Italiju, koji je u prvih sedam mjeseci. godine Ëinio 22 posto ukupnoga hrvatskoga robnog izvoza, dok je izvoz u BiH Ëinio 13 posto, izvoz u NjemaËku 10,8 posto te Austriju i Sloveniju oko 8 posto ukupnoga robnog izvoza. U usporedbi s prvih sedam mjeseci proπle godine, izvoz u BiH bio je veêi 3,7 posto, NjemaËku 1,4 posto te Sloveniju 17,4 posto, dok je izvoz u Austriju pao 14,8 posto, a Italiju 1,7 posto. Ako se promatra robna razmjena izraæena u ameriëkim dolarima, izvoz je u prvih sedam mjeseci porastao 11,4 posto, dok je uvoz istodobno takoappleer zabiljeæio meappleugodiπnji rast od 13,2 posto. Viπe razine meappleugodiπnjeg rasta izvoza i uvoza izraæenog u ameriëkim dolarima rezultat su Ëinjenice da se veêina robne razmjene Republike Hrvatske odvija sa zemljama Europske unije, te utjecaj na rast izvoza i uvoza ima i deprecijacija ameriëkog dolara prema euru. Aprecijacijski pritisci na kunu pojavili su se u. godini prije nego prethodnih godina. Tako je veê u svibnju zabiljeæen izrazito nizak prosjeëni teëaj od 7,33 HRK/EUR. NadolazeÊi mjeseci donijeli su sezonsku aprecijaciju kune koja se javlja tijekom 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Izvor: DZS Source: CBS % 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 Izvor: DZS Source: CBS Izvoz i uvoz ukupno te bez ostalih transportnih sredstava Export and import total and excluding other transport equipment 80 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII 2004 Ukupni robni izvoz (lijeva skala) / Total export of goods (left scale) Ukupni robni uvoz (lijeva skala) / Total import of goods (left scale) Izvoz bez ostalih transportnih sredstava / Export excluding other transport equipment Uvoz bez ostalih transportnih sredstava / Import excluding other transport equipment Koks i naftni derivati / Coke and refined petroleum products Doprinos pojedinih komponenti rastu izvoza Contribution of different components to export growth Kemikalije i kemijski proizvodi / Chemicals and chemical products Ostala prijevozna sredstva / Other transport equipment Ostale komponente / Other components ljetnih mjeseci zbog turistiëke sezone. ProsjeËni teëaj kune prema euru bio je tako od lipnja do kolovoza na razini od 7,32 HRK/EUR. Potkraj kolovoza aprecijacijski pritisci poëeli su popuπtati te je na kraju promatranog mjeseca teëaj bio na razini od 7,38 HRK/EUR. 0,8 1,3 0,6 1,3 6,3-4,2 I - VII 2004 I - VII 6,1 7,6 180 160 140 120 100 bez ostalih transportnih sredstava / excluding other transport equipment 10 kolovoz / August

INTERNATIONAL SECTOR After the highest growth rate of exports in which was recorded in June (29.3 percent), in July export decreased to 5 percent lower level than in the same month of previous year. Such developments can partially be attributed to high base because in the July of previous year high growth of 22.7 percent was recorded. Annual growth rate of imports was slightly below the average this year and it amounted 6.7 percent. When foreign trade in first seven months is observed, it can be seen that total export of goods increased by 6 percent while imports grew in the same period by 7.8 percent. Coverage of imports by exports was in the first seven months on the level of 46.8 percent which represents decrease of 0.8 percentage points compared to the same period of 2004 while trade deficit increased by 9.5 percent in the observed period. When the trade by activity is observed, the highest contribution to the growth of exports came from manufacture of food and beverages which grew by 36,8 percent, manufacture of machinery and equipment (35.4 percent), manufacture of coke and petroleum products (16.8 percent) and manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (15.4 percent). The highest negative contribution to growth came from manufacture of other transport equipment which decreased by 40 percent. The most significant increase on the side of imports was recorded in extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas which increased by 52.7 percent. When the three categories with the highest share in the total exports are observed, it can be noticed that the most significant change, in terms of contribution to growth, was recorded in manufacture of other transport equipment. In the first seven months of the year 2004 contribution to growth of mentioned category amounted to 6.3 percentage points while in the same period of decreased to negative -4.2 percentage points. When from import and export this category is excluded, export grew by 12,2 and import by 8,1 percent in the first seven months. When the same analogy is used to analyze import, it can be seen that the most significant influence to the growth of imports came from category extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas. If the effect of oil prices growth is % Izvor: DZS Source: CBS 7,7 7,6 7,5 7,4 7,3 7,2 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 Izvor: HNB Source: CNB 3.1. 0,5 Doprinos pojedinih komponenti rastu uvoza Contribution od different components to import growth 2,7 0,3 1,2 Sirova nafta i zemni Kemikalije i kemijski plin / Crude petroleum proizvodi / Chemicals and natural gas and chemical products 21.1. 10.2. 2.3. 0,4-0,9 Motorna vozila i prikolice / Motor vehicles and trailers I - VII 2004 I - VII Kretanje deviznih teëajeva Foreign exchange rates developments 22.3. 11.4. HRK / EUR 29.4. 19.5. 9.6. HRK / USD 30.6. 4,5 4,9 Ostale komponente / Other components 20.7. 10.8. 31.8. excluded, the growth rate of import falls down from 7.8 to around 4,5 percent. The highest share of total export of goods is export to Italy which represented 22 percent of total Croatian export in first seven months while export to BIH represented 13, Germany 10.8 and Austria and Slovenia around 8 percent of total export. When compared to the first seven months of previous year, export to BIH grew by 3.7 percent, Germany 1.4 percent and Slovenia 17.4 percent, while export to Austria fell down by 14.8 percent and Italy 1.7 percent. If the foreign trade in goods expressed in USD dollars is observed, exports grew in first seven months by 11.4 percent while imports in the same time grew by 13.2 percent. The higher levels of exports and imports growth when expressed in American dollar is a result of the fact that the highest share of Croatian foreign trade is conducted with European Union countries so depreciation of American dollar against euro has influence on statistical growth of exports and imports. Appreciation pressures on kuna appeared earlier in year than in the previous years. Already in May very low average exchange rate of 7.33 HRK/EUR was recorded. Forthcoming months brought seasonal kuna appreciation which arises during summer months because of tourist season. The average kuna exchange rate against euro was from June to August on the average level of 7.32 HRK/EUR. At the end of August appreciation pressures loosened and at the end of observed month exchange rate was at the level of 7.38 HRK/EUR. 6,2 6,1 6,0 5,9 5,8 5,7 5,6 5,5 5,4 kolovoz / August 11

DRÆAVNI PRORA»UN Prihodi U razdoblju od sijeënja do srpnja., srediπnji dræavni proraëun prikupio je 46.708 milijuna kuna proraëunskih prihoda, πto je 54,6 posto ukupno planiranih prihoda. Porezni prihodi ostvareni su u iznosu 27.558 milijuna kuna, socijalni doprinosi u iznosu 17.860 milijuna kuna, pomoêi u iznosu 14,1 milijuna kuna, dok se preostalih 1.276 milijuna odnosi na ostale prihode. Promatrano pojedinaëno, porezni prihodi u ukupno prikupljenim prihodima sudjeluju s 59 posto, pri Ëemu je najveêi prihod od poreza na dodanu vrijednost. Prihodi od poreza na dodanu vrijednost Ëine 62,4 posto ukupno ostvarenih poreznih prihoda. U promatranom razdoblju prikupljeni su u apsolutnom iznosu od 17.196 milijuna kuna, πto je 54,2 posto planiranih godiπnjih prihoda. Istodobno, rast na godiπnjoj razini iznosio je 3,9 posto, πto je rezultat znatne ekonomske aktivnosti zabiljeæene u drugom tromjeseëju. Socijalni doprinosi, na koje se odnosi 38,2 posto ukupnih prihoda, porasli su 6,3 posto u usporedbi s istim razdobljem prethodne godine. U apsolutnom iznosu, ostvareni su u iznosu od 17.860 milijuna kuna, πto je 56,7 posto planiranog godiπnjeg iznosa. U strukturi socijalnih doprinosa, najveêi dio odnosi se na doprinose poslodavaca prikupljene u iznosu od 9.503 milijuna kuna (godiπnji rast od 6,2 posto), te doprinose zaposlenika u iznosu od 7.923 milijuna kuna (godiπnji rast od 5,4 posto), dok se preostalih 433,8 milijuna kuna odnosi na doprinose od samozaposlenih ili nezaposlenih (godiπnji rast od 26,6 posto). Prihodi od troπarina na godiπnjoj su razini rasli neπto sporije (1,9 posto), na πto je utjecala i usporena gospodarska aktivnost poëetkom godine. Prikupljeni su u iznosu od 4.469 milijuna kuna, πto je ostvarenje od 54,3 posto planiranog iznosa. PromatrajuÊi strukturu troπarina, najveêi rast ostvarile su troπarine na bezalkoholna piêa (12,5 posto), na kavu (11 posto) i na osobne automobile (10,8 posto). S obzirom na to da troπarine na naftne derivate imaju udio od 39,8 posto u ukupno prikupljenim troπarinama, razumljiv je i njihov najveêi utjecaj na kretanje ukupno prikupljenih troπarina. Naime, prihodi od troπarina na naftne derivate zabiljeæeni su u iznosu od 1.779 milijuna kuna (meappleugodiπnje smanjenje od 2,1 posto), πto je 53,5 posto plana za. godinu. Istodobno, prihodi od troπarina na duhan i duhanske preraappleevine, na koje se odnosi 30,4 posto ukupnih troπarina, ostvareni su u iznosu od 1.360 milijuna kuna, πto je u usporedbi s istim razdobljem prethodne godine poveêanje od 4,8 posto. S druge strane, meappleugodiπnja smanjenja ostvarile su troπarine na luksuzne proizvode (9,3 posto), alkohol (3,5 posto) i pivo (3,1 posto). Porezom na dohodak prikupljeno je 1.590 milijuna kuna ili 49,2 posto planiranog godiπnjeg iznosa. Na godiπnjoj razini zabiljeæili su poveêanje od 0,2 posto. Prihodi po osnovi poreza na dobit rasli su godiπnjom stopom od Ëak 32,8 posto, tj. prikupljeni su u iznosu od 2.538 milijuna kuna (62,3 posto od plana za. godinu). Pozitivne uëinke na ovakvo kretanje prihoda od poreza na dobit imala su dobra poslovanja poduzeêa u 2004. godini, buduêi da se porez na dobit plaêa po ostvarenim rezultatima prethodne godine. U strukturi poreznih prihoda valja spomenuti i prihode od poreza na imovinu, koji su u sedam mjeseci. prikupljeni su u iznosu od 203,9 milijuna kuna, πto je 54,1 posto planiranih godiπnjih poreznih prihoda od imovine. Ta svota je 2,2 posto viπa u usporedbi s istim razdobljem prethodne godine. Prihodi po osnovi poreza na meappleunarodnu trgovinu i transakcije u sedam mjeseci. ostvareni su u (mil. HRK) (mil. HRK) (mil. HRK) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 650 500 350 200 50 2.700 2.500 2.300 2.100 1.900 1.700 1.500 Porez na dohodak (stalne cijene, prosjek 2001=100) Taxes on individual income (constant prices, average 2001=100) I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X 2001 2002 2003 2004 Izvorne vrijednosti / Basic values Trend - ciklus / Trend - cycle Porez na dobit (stalne cijene, prosjek 2001=100) Corporate income tax (constant prices, average 2001=100) I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X 2001 2002 2003 2004 Izvorne vrijednosti / Basic values Trend - ciklus / Trend - cycle Porez na dodanu vrijednost (stalne cijene, prosjek 2001=100) Value added tax (constant prices, average 2001=100) I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X 2001 2002 2003 2004 Izvorne vrijednosti / Basic values Trend - ciklus / Trend - cycle I IV VII mjesec/godina month/year I IV VII mjesec/godina month/year I IV VII mjesec/godina month/year apsolutnom iznosu od 866,4 milijuna kuna te su u usporedbi s istim razdobljem 2004. godine smanjeni 1,7 posto. Tim iznosom ostvareno je 55,4 posto planiranog iznosa za. godinu. Ostalim porezima prikupljeno je 219,8 milijuna kuna, πto je 53,4 posto planiranog godiπnjeg iznosa. UsporeappleujuÊi s istim razdobljem 2004. godine, ostvareno je poveêanje od 11,9 posto. Ostali prihodi Ëine 2,7 posto ukupnih prihoda proraëuna. U sedam mjeseci. ostvareni su u iznosu od 1.276 milijuna kuna, πto je godiπnji rast od 43 posto te ostvarenje 36,4 posto planiranog iznosa na razini godine. Prihodi od imovine prikupljeni su u iznosu od 469,4 milijuna kuna te je tim iznosom ostvareno 21,7 posto godiπnjeg plana. U usporedbi s proπlom godinom, prihodi od imovine rasli su za 79,7 posto. AnalizirajuÊi strukturu ostalih prihoda, 77,9 posto su prihodi od zakupnina, 17,3 posto dividende te preostalih 4,8 posto kamate. Prihodi od prodaje roba i usluga prikupljeni su u iznosu od 446,5 milijuna kuna, πto je godiπnji rast od 20,2 posto. Prihodi od prodaje roba i usluga sastoje se od prihoda od administrativnih 12 kolovoz / August

Revenue BUDGETARY CENTRAL GOVERNMENT In January - July of period, the Budgetary Central Government collected HRK 46.708 billion which represents 54.6% of the plan for. Tax revenues were realized in the amount of HRK 27.558 billion, social contributions in the amount of HRK 17.860 billion, grants in the amount of HRK 14.1 million and other revenues in the amount of HRK 1.276 billion. Tax revenues make up 59% of total revenue and valueadded-tax revenues represent the most important revenue category of the budget. Value-added-tax revenues represent 62.4% of tax revenues. They were realized at the level of HRK 17.196 billion or 54.1% of the plan for. In the same time they were 3.9% higher compared to the same period of 2004 due to the significant economic activity recorded in the second quarter of this year. In the first quarter of, revenues from value-added tax grew at a slower pace, but after that economic activity recovered and the revenues from value-added tax also recovered. Social contributions, which make up to 38.2% of total revenues, grew by 6.3% compared to the same period previous year. They amounted to HRK 17.860 billion making up to 56.73% of the planned amount for. Within the structure of social contributions recorded in June, the largest part referred to employers contributions amounting to HRK 9.503 billion (annual growth of 6.2%) and contributions of employees, which amounted to HRK 7.923 billion (annual growth of 5.4%), while the remaining HRK 433.8 million accounts for the contributions of self-employed and unemployed persons, which recorded an annual growth of 26.6%. Revenues from excise taxes have recorded a slower annual growth (1.9%) that can be attributed to the slowdown of economic activity during the first few months of the year. They amounted to HRK 4.469 billion that represents 54.3% of the planned amount. Within the structure of excise taxes, the highest growth was recorded by excises on non-alcoholic beverages (12.5%), coffee (11%) and personal cars (10.8%). Excises on oil derivatives made 39.8% of total excise-tax revenues having the strongest influence on the overall developments of excise-tax revenues. They amounted to HRK (mil. HRK) 800 700 600 500 400 Troπarine (stalne cijene, prosjek 2001=100) Excise tax (constant prices, average 2001=100) I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X 2001 2002 2003 2004 I IV VII 1.779 billion (annual fall of 2.1%), which represents 53.5% of the planned amount. Revenues from excise taxes on tobacco and tobacco products, which made 30.4% of total excise-tax revenues, amounted to HRK 1.360 billion recording a growth of 4.8% compared to the same period previous year. On the other hand, revenues from excise taxes on luxury products, alcohol and beer decreased by 9.3%, 3.5% and 3.1% respectively. Income tax revenues were realized at a level of HRK 1.590 billion, i.e. 49.2% of the planned annual amount. In the same time, income tax revenues have recorded a 0.2% increase compared to the same period previous year. Revenues collected by profit tax have grown by impressive 32.8% and amounted to HRK 2.538 billion. Compared to the annual plan, these tax revenues were realized at a level of 62.3%. Since the profit tax is levied upon the business performance of the previous year, such developments are a consequence of good business results achieved by corporations in 2004. Revenues from property tax were collected in the amount of HRK 203.9 million i.e. 54.1% of the planned annual amount. That amount is 2.2% higher compared to the same period last year. Revenues from tax on international trade amounted to HRK 866.4 million which is compared to the same period of 2004 decrease of 1.7%. That sum represents 55.4% of the planned amount for. Revenues from other taxes were collected in the amount of HRK 219,8 million which represents 53.4% of the plan for and annual increase of 11.9% compared to the same period of last year. Other revenues, which made 2.7% of total revenues, recorded the amount of HRK 1.276 billion which represents an annual growth of 43% and 36.4% of the amount planned for the year. Property revenues amounted to HRK 469.4 million i.e. 21.7% of the planned annual amount. Compared to the same period of the last year property revenues have grown by 79.7%. 77.9% refers to revenues from rent, 17.3% to dividends and the remaining 4.8% to interest revenues. Revenues from sales of goods and services amounted to HRK 446.5 million (20.2% annual growth) resulting from administrative fee revenues (50.4% share) and revenues from incidental sales by non-market establishments (49.6% share). Fines, penalties and forfeits amounted to HRK 206.8 million (annual increase of 14,9%) and miscellaneous and unidentified revenues amounted to HRK 152.1 million (annual increase of 90,3%). Izvorne vrijednosti / Basic values Trend - ciklus / Trend - cycle Carina i carinske pristojbe (stalne cijene, prosjek 2001=100) Customs duties (constant prices, average 2001=100) mjesec/godina month/year Expense Total expense of the Budgetary Central Government in the given period of the current year amounted to HRK 51.350 billion which represents an increase of 6.3% compared to the same period previous year and a realization of 58.6% of the amount planned for the year. (mil. HRK) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X 2001 2002 2003 2004 Izvorne vrijednosti / Basic values Trend - ciklus / Trend - cycle I IV VII mjesec/godina month/year The largest share (47%) of total expense refers to social benefits amounting to HRK 24.131 billion. They recorded an annual growth of 5.9% and were realized at the level of 58.2% of the planned amount for. Among social benefits, the largest amount of HRK 17.157 billion was spent for social security benefits representing a share of 71.1% in the total expense for social benefits. Within their structure, the largest categories relate to expenses for old age pensions, pensions for disabled persons and family pensions, followed by sick leave allowances, expenses for unemployment, maternity leave allowances and pensions abroad. Social assistance benefits, which account for 28.3% of social benefits, were realized in the amount of HRK 6,832 million. The largest share of these expenses refers to pensions for kolovoz / August 13